Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers prediction: Siena freshman Tim Ibukunoluwa takes his perfect touch to UD Arena
Dayton is favored by double digits, but a foul-prone Flyers defense and a short bench give Siena's 12-for-12 big man room to make it uncomfortable.
Siena Saints covered the closing spread (Siena Saints +14.5). The game went over the closing total of 158.5.
| Spread | Dayton -14 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158.5 |
- Dayton should control the paint and the foul line, but Siena's faster tempo and Dayton's thin rotation could keep the margin closer than expected.
- Tim Ibukunoluwa against Dayton's frontcourt: the Flyers foul often, and Siena's freshman center draws a heavy share of his team's shots.
- Dayton is -12.5, down from -13, while the total jumped from 152 to 159 despite both offenses shooting poorly from three.
A freshman who doesn't miss
Siena's Nov. 8 win over Princeton belonged to Tim Ibukunoluwa. The freshman scored 30 points on 12-for-12 shooting, a program record for made field goals without a miss, and he has been the center of everything for a rebuilt Saints team. Through two games he averages 25.0 points and finishes more of Siena's possessions than anyone else on the roster.
That sets up the most important matchup tonight. Dayton's defense has sent opponents to the line constantly. Its opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 49.6%, which ranks 322nd of 364. A post player who catches deep and draws contact is exactly what that profile invites.
The catch is what Siena does once it gets there. The Saints make only 63.2% of their free throws, 292nd nationally. Fouls on Ibukunoluwa help Siena only if the points follow.
Dayton's inside pair carries it
Dayton's offense runs through the lane as well. The Flyers get to the line at a rate that ranks 24th in the country, and they convert 77.4% when they get there.
Freshman Aiden Derkack has been the most efficient piece, averaging 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds. Amael L'Etang, one of the few returners, adds 18.0 points a game. Those two give Grant's team the more dependable half-court plan, especially against a Siena roster that lost its top frontcourt players from last season.
Bricks from deep, and a pace fight
Neither team can buy a three yet. Siena is shooting 24.4% from deep (337th of 364) and Dayton 25.6% (325th). Expect both offenses to keep attacking the paint until that changes.
The tempo question is more interesting. Under new coach Nevada Smith, Siena has played at 78 possessions per 40 minutes, 33rd nationally. Last season, under Gerry McNamara, the Saints ranked 363rd in pace. Dayton has played at 69.2 possessions. Whoever sets the tempo also sets how many trips Dayton's short rotation has to survive.
New rosters, thin benches
Last season is a weak guide for either team. Siena returns 21.6% of last season's minutes and Dayton 24.5%. The Saints have used a lineup of four freshmen around junior point guard Pace Prosser. Freshman forward Yannis Steger will miss the season after injuring his right knee in an Oct. 24 scrimmage.
Dayton listed only nine players this season, and it is not at full strength. Transfer guard Zaide Lowery sat in a protective boot and did not play against Northern Illinois on Nov. 7. Jalen Haynes made his Dayton debut in that game after knee surgery, but he played only about two minutes. Jaiun Simon is past the concussion that cost him the Notre Dame exhibition.
What the market is saying
Dayton is favored by 12.5 after the line first showed -13, a small move toward Siena. The bigger shift came on the total, which climbed from 152 to 159.
That move follows the early results, though it cuts against both teams' shooting. Both of Siena's games went under, and both of Dayton's went over. The Flyers also arrive with a warning sign: they lost 81-76 in overtime to Northern Illinois as a 19.5-point home favorite. A Siena team that plays fast and leans on one dominant freshman is the kind of opponent that can test a thin rotation.
Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers line movement and odds
| Book | Saints ML | Flyers ML | Saints spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +725 | -1200 | +14.5 (-118) | o158.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +600 | -1115 | +13.5 (-112) | o158.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +750 | -1200 | +14.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +900 | -1800 | +14.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +750 | -1200 | +14 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +800 | -1400 | +13.5 (-102) | o158.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +600 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +700 | -1100 | +14.5 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Siena Saints: 37% of bets, 4% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 63% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dayton Flyers -12.5: 79% of bets, 83% of the money; Siena Saints +12.5: 21% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 44% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 157.5: 56% of bets, 85% of the money.
Key players
- Tim Ibukunoluwa (Siena): He averages 25.0 points and 13.0 rebounds and went 12-for-12 for 30 against Princeton.
- Pace Prosser (Siena): He plays 37.0 minutes a night and averages 7.0 assists to go with 17.5 points.
- Trent Egbiremolen (Siena): He averages 7.5 rebounds but is 0 for 8 from three this season.
- Aiden Derkack (Dayton): He leads Dayton with 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds and carries a 146.5 offensive rating.
- Amael L'Etang (Dayton): He takes the largest share of Dayton's possessions, with a 29.2% usage rate, and averages 18.0 points.
- Landen Joseph (Dayton): The Marshall transfer scored 19 points against Northern Illinois and shot 41.3% from three at Marshall last season.
Numbers that matter
| Dayton opponent free throw rate | 49.6% | It ranks 322nd of 364, which favors Siena's post-up attack. |
|---|---|---|
| Siena free throw % | 63.2% | At 292nd nationally, it limits how much Siena gains from drawing fouls. |
| Siena pace | 78 | Siena ranks 33rd in possessions per 40 minutes under Nevada Smith, a sharp change from last season's crawl. |
| Total movement | 152 to 159 | The total rose sharply even though both teams shoot below 26% from three. |
| Dayton spread | -12.5 | The line has dipped from -13 after Dayton's overtime loss to Northern Illinois. |
Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers: quick answers
What was the final score of Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
Siena Saints 99, Dayton Flyers 89 (final). Siena Saints covered the closing spread (Siena Saints +14.5). The game went over the closing total of 158.5.
Who is favored in Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
Dayton is favored by 14 points (Dayton -14).
What is the over/under for Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
The total is 158.5 points.
When is Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
Yes: Siena Saints opened +13.5 and is now +14.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 158.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Siena Saints vs Dayton Flyers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Siena Saints: 37% of bets, 4% of the money; Dayton Flyers: 63% of bets, 96% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Dayton Flyers -12.5: 79% of bets, 83% of the money; Siena Saints +12.5: 21% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 44% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 157.5: 56% of bets, 85% of the money.