SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels prediction: Ole Miss's turnover machine faces a SE Louisiana backcourt that leaks possessions
A rebuilt Lions roster that lives on threes has to get shots up first, against a Rebels defense that has taken the ball away at an elite rate through two games.
Ole Miss Rebels covered the closing spread (SE Louisiana Lions +25.5). The game went under the closing total of 146.5.
| Spread | Ole Miss -26 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- Ole Miss turns SE Louisiana giveaways into early runs; the Lions need a hot shooting night to keep this within shouting distance.
- Ole Miss's ball pressure will test Tyler Rolison and a Lions offense that turns it over on 20.6% of possessions.
- Ole Miss -25.5 and 147.5 have not moved since our feed first saw them; the Rebels have covered both games this season.
Ball security decides the margin
Two games into Chris Beard's fourth season, Ole Miss has turned its defense into a takeaway operation. The Rebels force a turnover on 29.9% of opponent possessions, fourth in Division I, and they have won 99-58 and 92-60 at home. Neither opponent was much, but the turnover rate is the kind of number that travels to weaker teams.
SE Louisiana is exactly that kind of team. The Lions give the ball away on 20.6% of their trips (turnover rate: giveaways per 100 possessions), 288th nationally. Point guard Tyler Rolison carries the offense with a 24.8% usage rate, and he went 2 of 9 from the floor in the loss at Auburn. Every live-ball turnover feeds a Rebels attack that already scores efficiently in the half court. If the Lions can't keep this a half-court game, it will get away from them early.
Threes or bust for the Lions
SE Louisiana has embraced the arc. Nearly half its shots are threes (a 49.2% attempt rate, 57th most), and that's where its best scoring night came from: Jackson Furman hit 5 of 9 and scored 21 in the win at Little Rock.
Ole Miss has let opponents shoot from deep, with 52.0% of opponent attempts coming from three. The reason is what happens inside. The Rebels block 20.4% of opponent two-point tries, 14th in the country, and SE Louisiana makes just 43.3% of its twos, 335th. The Lions will settle for threes because the paint is closed, and on a cold night there is no fallback.
The glass makes it worse. SE Louisiana grabs only 54.3% of opponents' misses, 358th, so Ole Miss should get plenty of second chances.
Two rebuilds, one further along
Both rosters were remade, but SE Louisiana's was torn down. Players back from last season account for just 2.7% of the Lions' minutes from a year ago, so last season's team numbers say almost nothing about this group. David Kiefer, in his eighth season, rebuilt around transfers, including Ashley Sims II and Quincy Allen from Bryant and Furman from Army. Beard described the Lions as an older team that uses a three-guard lineup at times.
Ole Miss returns 29.7% of last season's minutes and was picked 13th in the SEC preseason. The best holdover has been the sharpest early: Patton Pinkins is 7 of 9 from three. Adam "Budd" Clark runs the offense, and Santiago Trouet has been productive off the bench.
The frontcourt depth is the open question. Micah Handlogten missed the opener for eligibility reasons and is now listed as eligible, but it's unclear whether he played against Central Arkansas. Corey Stephenson has reportedly received temporary eligibility, and how his status develops is uncertain. Ben Henshall, cleared in October, scored 13 in the Central Arkansas win.
A big line that hasn't moved
Ole Miss is favored by 25.5 with a total of 147.5, unchanged since our feed first saw the game this morning. The Rebels have covered both games, and they have built big early leads, averaging 49.5 first-half points (25th).
SE Louisiana is on the second stop of an eight-game road stretch that includes three SEC opponents in its first four games. The first one went badly: a 92-59 loss at Auburn as a 29.5-point underdog, with the Lions scoring just 59. The Lions have gone over the total in both games, largely because their defense hasn't held up. When these teams met last season in Oxford, Ole Miss won 88-58.
SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels line movement and odds
| Book | Lions ML | Rebels ML | Lions spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +2800 | -10000 | +25.5 (-105) | — |
| BetRivers | — | — | +25.5 (-113) | o146.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +2500 | -9000 | +25.5 (-108) | o146.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +25.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +3000 | -10000 | +25.5 (-105) | o147 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +4000 | -30000 | +25.5 (-105) | o146.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +25.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +25.5 (-110) | o147 (-110) |
Where the money is on SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels
On the Kalshi moneyline: SE Louisiana Lions: 82% of bets, 15% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels: 18% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ole Miss Rebels -25.5: 89% of bets, 71% of the money; SE Louisiana Lions +25.5: 11% of bets, 29% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 63% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 146.5: 37% of bets, 27% of the money.
Key players
- Patton Pinkins (Ole Miss): He is averaging 17.5 points and has made 7 of 9 threes through two games.
- Adam "Budd" Clark (Ole Miss): The Seton Hall transfer averages 15.0 points and 6.5 assists.
- Santiago Trouet (Ole Miss): The Arizona State transfer averages 11.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in 20.5 minutes.
- Corey Stephenson (Ole Miss): Playing on temporary eligibility, he carries a team-high 27.3% usage rate.
- Jackson Furman (SE Louisiana): The Army transfer leads the Lions with 13.0 points and has hit 6 of 14 threes.
- Tyler Rolison (SE Louisiana): The Nevada transfer averages 5.0 assists but shoots 35% from the field.
- Ashley Sims II (SE Louisiana): He went 7 of 8 for 18 points at Little Rock after an 0-for-6 night at Auburn.
- Quincy Allen (SE Louisiana): The Bryant transfer averages 11.0 points and has made 4 of 11 threes.
Numbers that matter
| Ole Miss forced turnover rate | 29.9% | Fourth in Division I, and the clearest edge in the matchup. |
|---|---|---|
| SE Louisiana turnover rate | 20.6% | Ranks 288th, which gives the Rebels' pressure plenty to work with. |
| Ole Miss block rate | 20.4% | Ranks 14th against a Lions team making 43.3% of its twos. |
| SE Louisiana returning minutes | 2.7% | Almost nothing carries over from last season's team. |
| Spread | -25.5 | Ole Miss's number hasn't moved since our feed first recorded it. |
SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels: quick answers
What was the final score of SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
SE Louisiana Lions 51, Ole Miss Rebels 91 (final). Ole Miss Rebels covered the closing spread (SE Louisiana Lions +25.5). The game went under the closing total of 146.5.
Who is favored in SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
Ole Miss is favored by 26 points (Ole Miss -26).
What is the over/under for SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
No: SE Louisiana Lions has stayed at +25.5, and the total is still 146.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on SE Louisiana Lions vs Ole Miss Rebels?
On the Kalshi moneyline: SE Louisiana Lions: 82% of bets, 15% of the money; Ole Miss Rebels: 18% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ole Miss Rebels -25.5: 89% of bets, 71% of the money; SE Louisiana Lions +25.5: 11% of bets, 29% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 63% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 146.5: 37% of bets, 27% of the money.