SE Louisiana Lions vs Auburn Tigers prediction: Kevin Overton's Auburn opens against an SE Louisiana roster rebuilt from scratch

A team of strangers

SE Louisiana opens its season with almost nobody who played for it a year ago. Players on this roster accounted for just 2.7% of last season's minutes. Fourteen newcomers fill the locker room, 12 of them transfers. A cluster came from Bryant, the former stop of associate head coach Bruce Shingler.

That turnover drains most of the meaning from last season's 9-22 record. It also means David Kiefer's group plays its first real game together inside Neville Arena. The schedule gets no easier, either: the Lions face three SEC opponents in their first four games, a program first.

Auburn is rebuilt too, just less so. Players on its roster account for 34.5% of last season's minutes, and the two who matter most are its returning starting guards, Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton. Steven Pearl, in his second season, has a rebuilt frontcourt and a preseason that included exhibition losses to Florida State and Alabama. Pearl warned this week against overlooking SE Louisiana, pointing to its roster churn and the risk of an early upset.

Overton sets the tone

Overton was Auburn's most efficient high-volume scorer last season, shooting 41.3% from three on 230 attempts. He carried that into the fall, averaging 20.3 points across three preseason games, including 26 in the loss to Alabama. Pettiford is the higher-usage creator, but his 29% three-point shooting last season made him streakier.

The supporting cast arrives from mid-major stops. Adam Olsen shot 39.5% from three at South Alabama last season, and Thomas Dowd was a starter and rebounder at Troy. Kolby King made his preseason debut in the Samford win after missing the Alabama exhibition with a teeth issue, and Pearl said he wants to play King more if the bench lift continues.

SE Louisiana's most proven shooter is Army transfer Jackson Furman, who made 34.7% of his threes last season. The Lions need him to be steady, because few others on the roster shot well from deep at their previous schools.

Glass, fouls and a new frontcourt

Auburn's offense last season was built on second chances and free throws. Its offensive rebound rate (share of its own misses it grabbed back) was 36.9%, 21st in Division I. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 43.3%, 14th.

SE Louisiana's defense last season allowed a free throw rate of 40.0%, which ranked 311th, but nearly every player from that defense is gone. The more relevant question is Auburn's own size. Bukky Oboye and Narcisse Ngoy make their Auburn debuts here after Pearl said the pair was "punked" by Florida State in October. Creighton transfer Owen Freeman is back from a foot injury and available, though Pearl said he will be on a light minutes load to start. International signee Mantas Rubštavičius is out for the season after dropping his eligibility case.

A big line that hasn't moved

Auburn is a 26.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game this morning. The market is betting on talent gap and continuity, and both favor Auburn.

The case for the underdog sits on Auburn's defense. Last season it allowed 114.1 points per 100 possessions, 314th in the country, and opponents made 36.7% of their threes, 347th. That is a lot of cushion to hand an opponent before covering a number this size. Whether a reshaped Auburn roster defends better is the open question, and the exhibition losses did not settle it. The Lions' new transfers have to prove they can make shots first.