Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions prediction: Jordan Watford brings Queens' track-meet offense into LMU's rebuilt gym
Queens scored 103 in its opener with a defense that rarely stops anyone, and LMU, with almost nobody back, has to prove it can punish that.
| Spread | Loyola Marymount -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157.5 |
- Queens pushes the pace behind Watford; LMU's newcomers try to slow it down and win the half-court game at home.
- Jordan Watford against LMU's guards: he used 31.7% of Queens' possessions in the opener and scored a career-high 26.
- LMU is favored by 6.5 with a 157.5 total, unchanged all day; LMU returns only 20.0% of last season's minutes.
Queens wants another shootout
Queens opened its season by outscoring Winthrop 103-98 on Nov. 2, and Jordan Watford ran the show. The guard scored a career-high 26 points. He used 31.7% of Queens' possessions while on the floor, the clearest sign of whose team this is now.
The game moved fast, at 79 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 41st nationally this young season. Queens led 55-38 at halftime. Nasir Mann added 19 points, and freshman Caleb Jones came off the bench for 15 and made key late plays.
That is the Queens formula from last season's run to its first NCAA Tournament: score a lot, allow a lot. The Royals finished last season 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and 333rd on defense. Only 40.0% of last season's minutes are back, though, and the shooting that left is real: Chris Ashby took his 111 made threes elsewhere, and Maban Jabriel is now at Maryland.
LMU starts almost from scratch
Stan Johnson's seventh LMU team returns 20.0% of last season's minutes and 17.2% of its points. Last season's 15-17 team defended well, ranking 111th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but its leading scorers are gone: Rodney Brown Jr. to Seton Hall, Jan Vide to Virginia and Jalen Shelley to Texas A&M. Treat last season's LMU numbers as a weak guide.
The exhibitions did not settle much. LMU led Cal by 10 with under eight minutes left and lost on a late three. It then fell to UC Santa Barbara 72-67 at Gersten Pavilion on Oct. 25. Tonight is the regular-season home opener, and the Lions come in after losing both exhibitions.
The newcomers who have to deliver
LMU rebuilt through the portal. Zion Sensley averaged 10.9 points at UC Santa Barbara last season and rebounds like a forward from the guard spot. All Wright shot 42.2% from three at Xavier, the kind of shooting that should test a Queens defense that has struggled to guard the arc. Christian Humphrey-Rembert pulled down 6.6 rebounds a game at Lafayette.
LMU is also slightly bigger, with a minutes-weighted average height of 79.0 inches to Queens' 78.0. The Lions' best path is to turn this into a half-court game where size and new shooters matter more than Watford in transition.
One loose end: Andy Sigiscar carried an undisclosed tag for the Cal exhibition, and LMU hasn't said whether he is available.
Where the number sits
LMU is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 157.5, and neither has moved since the feed first saw the game this morning across nine books. The market is mostly pricing home court and LMU's portal haul against a Queens team with a game already played.
The total is the more interesting question. Queens' opener closed at 168.5 and still went over. LMU played at a middling pace last season, so how many possessions Queens can force may decide whether this one gets near that range.
Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Royals ML | Lions ML | Royals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +230 | -285 | +7.5 (-118) | o157.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +235 | -315 | +6.5 (-106) | o157.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +220 | -270 | +6.5 (-105) | o157.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +225 | -275 | +7.5 (-105) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +220 | -275 | +6.5 (-110) | o157.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +235 | -295 | +6.5 (-104) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +6.5 (-110) | o158 (-110) |
Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions stats (this season)
| Stat | Queens University Royals | Loyola Marymount Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 116.0 (75th of 365) | 105.9 (227th of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 118.6 (333rd of 365) | 105.9 (111th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -2.6 (203rd of 365) | -0.1 (169th of 365) |
Key players
- Jordan Watford (Queens University): Scored a career-high 26 points on 10-of-15 shooting with 8 assists against Winthrop.
- Nasir Mann (Queens University): Hit 3 of 6 threes for 19 points in the opener after averaging 13.3 points last season.
- Caleb Jones (Queens University): Went 6 of 7 from the floor, including 3 of 3 from deep, for 15 points off the bench.
- Zion Sensley (Loyola Marymount): Averaged 10.9 points and 7.6 rebounds at UC Santa Barbara last season.
- All Wright (Loyola Marymount): Shot 42.2% from three at Xavier last season.
- Aaron McBride (Loyola Marymount): Averaged 7.6 points and 5.6 rebounds as a 24-game starter last season.
Numbers that matter
| LMU returning minutes | 20.0% | Four starters' worth of production left, so last season's profile says little about this LMU team. |
|---|---|---|
| Queens adj. defense, last season | 333rd | Queens' defense ranked near the bottom of Division I last season, which is why opponents can score with them. |
| Queens pace vs. Winthrop | 79 | Possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 41st nationally, the tempo Queens wants again. |
| Watford usage rate | 31.7% | Share of Queens' possessions Watford finished in the opener, making him the focal point. |
| Spread | -6.5 | LMU's number has held since the feed first saw the game. |
Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
Loyola Marymount is favored by 6.5 points (Loyola Marymount -6.5).
What is the over/under for Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
The total is 157.5 points.
When is Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions played?
Gersten Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA.
Has the line moved for Queens University Royals vs Loyola Marymount Lions?
No: Queens University Royals has stayed at +6.5, and the total is still 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).