Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Butler Bulldogs prediction: Butler's rebuilt shooters chase a big number against battered FDU

A green light from deep

Butler spent the offseason replacing nearly its entire rotation, and the first look was loud: 16 made threes in a 96-60 rout of Lafayette on Monday. Fairleigh Dickinson's first look went the other way, a 120-45 loss at No. 3 Illinois the same night. Tonight at Hinkle Fieldhouse, the question is less who wins than how much room Butler's shooters get, and whether they keep the ball long enough to use it.

Under first-year coach Ronald Nored, Butler took 65.7% of its shots from three against Lafayette. That is the third-highest rate in Division I so far. It is also a sharp turn from last season, when the Bulldogs ranked 275th in three-point attempt rate. Jalen Jackson, Asim Djulovic and Jordan Ellerbee each went 4 of 6 from deep, and Ellerbee did it off the bench.

FDU's opener suggests the Knights will let Butler shoot. Illinois took 61.4% of its shots from three, the seventh-highest share any defense has allowed. When the Illini did go inside, they made 84.4% of their twos, the worst mark against any team in the country. That came against an elite opponent in a one-game sample, but nothing in it points to a defense that can run Butler off the line.

Butler's giveaway problem

The blemish on Monday was the ball security. Butler committed 20 turnovers against Lafayette. That works out to a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 25.6, which ranks 312th. A cleaner night would have made a lopsided win even uglier.

FDU didn't look built to punish it. The Knights forced turnovers on just 9.3 of every 100 Illinois possessions, 343rd nationally. The bigger Butler edge may come on the glass. The Bulldogs rebounded half of their own misses against Lafayette, ranking 23rd in offensive rebound rate. FDU grabbed just 45.0% of Illinois misses, 344th in defensive rebound rate. Drayton Jones, the returning starter at center, went 4 of 4 with eight rebounds and four blocks in the opener.

Two rosters starting over

Last season's numbers are a weak guide here. Butler returns only 11.8% of last season's minutes and added 10 new players. Jackson and Jones are the returning starters, and the newcomers include transfers Ellerbee, Christian Moore, Treyson Anderson and Eduardo Klafke. Big East coaches still picked the Bulldogs 11th of 11. For what it's worth, last season's final adjusted ratings had Butler 81st and FDU 331st in net efficiency.

FDU brings back 25.2% of its minutes. Gone are Joey Niesman and Eric Parnell, who left for Georgia State. David Jevtic is the returner carrying the load. He led the Knights with 13 points at Illinois and made two of his four threes. Freshman Diing Maiwen hit two triples in his debut.

No new injury, illness or eligibility report has surfaced for either team. Jackson and freshman Samu Adler, who had a broken finger, were both cleared for Butler's Oct. 25 exhibition at Ohio State.

Reading the number

Butler opened at -24.5 with a total of 153.5, and neither has moved since our feed first recorded the game Wednesday morning. Both teams went over in their openers. Butler covered as a 19.5-point favorite, while FDU failed to cover by a wide margin at Illinois.

Tempo pushes toward points. Butler played at 77.5 possessions per 40 minutes on Monday, 60th nationally, and scored 54 in the first half. FDU played faster at Illinois than it did last season, when the Knights ranked 336th in pace at 64.2 possessions. Whether FDU can slow this game down, or chooses to, shapes the total as much as Butler's shooting does.