CSU Northridge Matadors vs Wichita St Shockers prediction: Cal State Northridge's sprint tests Wichita State's half-court grind

Two speeds, one floor

Cal State Northridge played fast last season. The Matadors averaged 74.9 possessions per 40 minutes, 4th of 365 Division I teams. Wichita State played at 65.7, 283rd. That is a huge gap in style, and Charles Koch Arena is the Shockers' home floor.

The speed had a cost for Northridge. It scored 81.4 points a game, 56th nationally, but allowed 79.8, which ranked 327th. Some of that is pace: more possessions mean more points both ways. Wichita State allowed 70.8 a game, and its quieter tempo is part of how it did that.

A game played at Wichita State's speed means fewer possessions for Northridge's transition offense, and that favors the home side.

The battle on the offensive glass

Wichita State's best weapon last season was the second shot. The Shockers rebounded 38.5% of their own misses, 5th in the country. They needed it, because they didn't shoot well: their effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) was 50.0%, 273rd, and they made 49.4% of their twos, 296th.

Northridge's back line is the best part of its profile. The Matadors grabbed 73.7% of opponents' misses last season, 34th nationally. If they hold that line against Mills' rebounders, Wichita State's half-court offense has to make shots it often missed a year ago.

Threes on one end, free throws on the other

Opponents shot plenty of threes against Northridge last season. Their 3-point attempt rate was 48.6% of shots, the 7th-highest share nationally. Wichita State doesn't shoot many threes. Its own attempt rate ranked 293rd, so it may not exploit that opening.

The Shockers' defense was the steadier unit. Opponents posted a 47.4% effective field goal percentage, 36th, and made just 31.7% of their threes. Northridge shot 32.2% from deep, 282nd.

If this one is close late, watch the line. Northridge made 66.7% of its free throws last season, which ranked 347th.

Wichita State's availability questions

The biggest unknown is guard Kenyon Giles, a fifth-year player whose eligibility is tied up in court. As of late September he was practicing. Coverage disagreed on whether an Indiana court order had cleared him, and Mills warned the fight is far from over, with clarity possibly not coming until the new year. Treat his status as unsettled. Giles also missed an early-October exhibition against Murray State with an ankle injury.

The frontcourt is thin, too. Forward Jaret Valencia is coming back from Achilles surgery and, as of late September, was far from competitive practice. Sophomore big Noah Hill was still in a boot with a toe injury and had no return date. Guard Pierre Couisnard was sidelined after knee surgery. Mills said only 14 players are on scholarship, with one spot held for Giles. A shortened rotation could make it harder for Wichita State to keep up its rebounding edge.

Northridge had no injury news in the past three weeks. Andy Newman added transfers Keziah Ekissi from Oregon State and Jael Martin from Loyola Marymount.

What last season says

These are last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), not projections for this year. Wichita State finished with an adjusted net efficiency of 12.4, 68th nationally. Northridge finished at -1.3, 182nd. The Shockers went 24-12 and the Matadors 20-14. Northridge ended its season with a 93-78 loss to UC Irvine in the Big West semifinals.

That gap points to the home team. Roster changes and Wichita State's injury list make it a rougher guide than usual for an opener.