Saint Mary of the Woods College vs Southern Indiana prediction: Southern Indiana's rebuilt backcourt gets its first test against Saint Mary-of-the-Woods
After a 7-23 season with one of the worst shooting offenses in Division I, USI opens its first NCAA tournament-eligible year with new guards and a home exhibition-level opponent.
- Southern Indiana should control a slow game at home; the real question is whether its new transfers look like an offense.
- Watch USI's guards, led by newcomer Ari Gooch, against a Saint Mary-of-the-Woods team in its second year under Maverick Harris.
- No line is posted yet. USI played at a pace ranked 336th last season, which points toward a low total.
An offense that needed new parts
Southern Indiana went 7-23 last season, and the shooting explains most of it. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 made shots, was 44.9%, 363rd of 365 in Division I. Inside the arc it was just as bad: 43.8% on twos, also 363rd.
The free-throw line offered no relief. USI made 65.6% of its foul shots, 358th nationally. By last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), the offense ranked 353rd.
Stan Gouard, entering his seventh season at his alma mater, answered with the transfer market. Junior guard Ari Gooch joined in May, followed by Josh Smith, Yesan Warren, Afan Trnka and Fredy-Salam Sylla. Warren did not play last season at Cal State Fullerton. With that much new talent, last season's numbers are a rough guide at best, and this opener is the first look at whether the shooting floor has moved.
A defense worth keeping
The defense gave USI something to build on. Opponents made 47.9% of their twos, 49th-best in the country, and the Screaming Eagles all but erased the three-point shot: opponent 3-point attempt rate ranked 364th of 365, meaning almost no one faced fewer threes. The weak spot was the defensive glass, where USI's 66.7% defensive rebound rate ranked 319th.
The stakes are also new. This is the first season USI is eligible for the NCAA tournament, so November is the start of a season that can actually end somewhere.
Harris's second act at Saint Mary-of-the-Woods
Saint Mary-of-the-Woods is not a Division I program, so there are no comparable numbers for it. Coach Maverick Harris is entering his second season after arriving in April 2025 from Bethany College, where he engineered a one-season turnaround.
His first Pomeroys team reached the River States Conference Tournament and beat two nationally ranked NAIA opponents, No. 25 Georgia Gwinnett and No. 25 IU Kokomo. No 2026-27 roster has been published, so who Harris brings to Evansville for the Wednesday, Nov. 4 tip is unknown.
Numbers that matter
| USI effective FG%, last season | 44.9% | Ranked 363rd of 365, the core problem the transfer class is meant to fix. |
|---|---|---|
| USI free throw %, last season | 65.6% | Ranked 358th of 365, a real drag on the offense. |
| USI opponent 2-point %, last season | 47.9% | Ranked 49th, the strongest piece of last season's team. |
| USI pace, last season | 64.2 | Possessions per 40 minutes ranked 336th, a slow style that shapes any total. |
Saint Mary of the Woods College vs Southern Indiana: quick answers
When is Saint Mary of the Woods College vs Southern Indiana?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.