North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels prediction: Saint Mary's starts over; North Dakota State's veterans arrive in Moraga
A program that lost its coach and most of its minutes hosts a Summit League champion that brought its backcourt back, and continuity may matter more than pedigree on Nov. 4.
| Spread | Saint Mary's -12 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149 |
- Expect North Dakota State's returning guards to look sharper early while Saint Mary's new pieces learn McConnell's system around Joshua Dent.
- Dent against the Bison's ball pressure: NDSU forced turnovers on 19.8% of possessions last season, and the Gaels were loose with the ball.
- No spread or total is posted yet. Saint Mary's played at the second-slowest pace in Division I last season, a key number for any total.
A new bench in Moraga
For a quarter century, Saint Mary's basketball meant Randy Bennett. He left after 25 seasons to take over at Arizona State, and Mickey McConnell was named head coach on March 23. The Gaels arrive at this game as defending WCC regular-season champions with four straight league titles. Very little of that team is still here.
Players on this season's roster accounted for just 29.2% of last season's minutes. Paulius Murauskas, who scored 18.4 points a game, followed Bennett to Arizona State. Mikey Lewis went to Texas and center Andrew McKeever to Iowa. The Gaels finished last season 23rd nationally in adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). With this much turnover, that rating says more about the program's standard than about this roster.
The constant is Joshua Dent, a preseason all-WCC pick who averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 assists last season while playing more than 36 minutes a night. Coaches still picked Saint Mary's second in the WCC behind Santa Clara. Saint Mary's listed no injuries as of Oct. 15.
The Bison kept their core
North Dakota State is coming off a 27-8 season, a Summit League regular-season title and a 70-62 win over North Dakota in the conference tournament final. David Richman is in his 13th season, and most of his rotation stayed with him. The roster returns 68.2% of last season's minutes.
The Bison did lose two key players. Trevian Carson left for Cincinnati and forward Noah Feddersen for Colorado, and Karl Poom arrives from Northern Arizona. The guards who carried the offense are back. Damari Wheeler-Thomas led the team at 14.5 points a game. Markhi Strickland, a guard who almost never shoots threes, made 59.6% of his field goals by living around the rim. In an early-November game, a group that already knows its roles has a real edge over one still sorting them out.
Shooters against a reshuffled perimeter
North Dakota State's offense runs through its outside shooters. Tay Smith hit 39.1% of his threes last season off the bench, and Wheeler-Thomas made 38.3% on high volume. Andy Stefonowicz, a guard who shot 37.7% from three last season, adds a steady third option.
The Gaels will have to defend that group with largely new personnel. Saint Mary's three-point defense was strong last season, holding opponents to 31.1%, 39th nationally, but the players who earned that number are mostly gone. On the other end, Dent shot 40.4% from deep, so he can punish a Bison defense that allowed opponents to take threes freely last season.
Pressure meets a slow clock
Saint Mary's under Bennett played at 61.7 possessions per 40 minutes, 364th of 365 teams. Whether McConnell keeps that tempo is one of the first things this game will show.
Ball security is the main stress point. North Dakota State forced turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions last season, 48th nationally. The Gaels gave the ball away on 17.9% of theirs, 268th. With a mostly new supporting cast around Dent, any extra possessions the Bison create could swing a game this slow.
The glass may offset that. North Dakota State grabbed 75.0% of available defensive rebounds, 11th in the country, so the Gaels may not get many second chances to make up for lost possessions.
North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels line movement and odds
| Book | Bison ML | Gaels ML | Bison spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +600 | -900 | — | o149.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | +525 | -750 | +12.5 (-118) | o149.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +11.5 (+100) | o149.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +575 | -850 | +12.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +640 | -1000 | +12.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +12 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Kalshi (fee incl.) | +625 | -788 | — | — |
| Polymarket US (fee incl.) | +574 | -788 | — | — |
Where the money is on North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Dakota St Bison: 92% of bets, 86% of the money; Saint Mary's Gaels: 8% of bets, 14% of the money.
North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels stats (this season)
| Stat | North Dakota St Bison | Saint Mary's Gaels |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 111.3 (131st of 365) | 120.4 (41st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 106.8 (127th of 365) | 96.1 (16th of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | 4.4 (123rd of 365) | 24.3 (23rd of 365) |
| Pace | 70.0 (172nd of 304) | 65.8 (267th of 304) |
| Effective FG% | 61.0% (60th of 303) | 52.9% (147th of 303) |
| Opponent effective FG% | 48.1% (152nd of 303) | 59.5% (260th of 303) |
| Turnover rate | 18.6% (174th of 303) | 14.9% (98th of 303) |
| Offensive rebound % | 46.9% (34th of 303) | 41.0% (65th of 303) |
| 3-point % | 41.7% (57th of 303) | 23.5% (254th of 303) |
| Free throw rate | 45.8% (74th of 303) | 38.2% (127th of 303) |
Key players
- Joshua Dent (Saint Mary's): Last season he averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 assists and shot 91.8% from the line.
- Mantas Juzenas (Saint Mary's): He made 48.4% of his threes last season in limited minutes and could see a much bigger role.
- Rory Hawke (Saint Mary's): He played 10.7 minutes a game last season and is one of the few Gaels with real experience in the program.
- Damari Wheeler-Thomas (North Dakota State): He led the Bison at 14.5 points a game last season with a 23.6% usage rate.
- Andy Stefonowicz (North Dakota State): Last season he averaged 4.8 assists and 1.7 steals, a key part of the Bison's ball pressure.
- Tay Smith (North Dakota State): He shot 39.1% from three on 192 attempts last season.
- Markhi Strickland (North Dakota State): He made 59.6% of his shots last season but just 48.4% of his free throws.
Numbers that matter
| Saint Mary's returning minutes | 29.2% | Most of the team that won the WCC regular season is gone, along with coach Randy Bennett. |
|---|---|---|
| NDSU returning minutes | 68.2% | The Summit League champions bring back most of their guard rotation. |
| Saint Mary's pace last season | 61.7 | That pace ranked 364th of 365 under Bennett, and McConnell's tempo is still unknown. |
| NDSU forced turnover rate last season | 19.8% | It ranked 48th nationally, against a Gaels offense that ranked 268th in turnover rate. |
| NDSU defensive rebound % last season | 75.0% | It ranked 11th, limiting second chances for any opponent. |
North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels: quick answers
Who is favored in North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Saint Mary's is favored by 12 points (Saint Mary's -12).
What is the over/under for North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
The total is 149 points.
When is North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Where is North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels played?
University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA.
Has the line moved for North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
Yes: North Dakota St Bison opened +12 and is now +12.5, and the total moved from 146 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on North Dakota St Bison vs Saint Mary's Gaels?
On the Kalshi moneyline: North Dakota St Bison: 92% of bets, 86% of the money; Saint Mary's Gaels: 8% of bets, 14% of the money.