Radford Highlanders vs California Golden Bears prediction: Radford must stop giving the ball away against Michael Cooper's Cal

Radford has to hold on

Cal scored 66 points in the first half of its opener Monday, a school record, and Mark Madsen has called this the deepest team he has had at Cal. Radford comes to Berkeley tonight off a 76-62 loss at San Francisco and needs to keep the ball long enough to make the Bears work.

That is where the Highlanders struggled Monday. They turned it over on 28.8% of their possessions, 333rd in Division I after the first weekend. Turnover rate is the share of trips that end in a giveaway before a shot. Much of the offense ran through two players who struggled to turn possessions into points. Mathieu Grujicic used 33.4% of Radford's possessions while on the floor and finished with an offensive rating of 69.8, meaning points produced per 100 possessions. Robinson, a sophomore transfer from Austin Peay making his Radford debut, was at 77.8.

Cal sits at the other end. The Bears gave it away on just 9.9% of possessions, 14th nationally, and Jordan Ross, a transfer from Georgia, ran the offense with 9 assists.

Cooper and the new Bears

Michael Cooper came off the bench Monday and scored 24, making 6 of 8 threes. He averaged 13.4 points at Wright State last season, so he has scored before, even if that shooting will cool. Sammie Yeanay and Pittsburgh transfer Nojus Indrusaitis also topped 20.

The caveat is the opponent. All of it came against Adams State, which has no Division I rating, and Cal still allowed 86 points. Radford is a sterner test.

The bigger unknown is inside. Center Lee Dort, Cal's most experienced returner, missed the opener with an ankle injury. As of Nov. 3 there was no word on whether he plays Wednesday.

Two rosters built from scratch

Neither team looks like last season's. Radford brings back 9.1% of last season's minutes after its two leading scorers left: Dennis Parker Jr. for Kansas and Del Jones for Seton Hall. Cal returns 20.5%, with Dai Dai Ames now at Tennessee.

That makes last season's ratings a soft guide. Cal finished 73rd in adjusted net efficiency, which measures how many points per 100 possessions a team outscored opponents by, adjusted for schedule. Radford finished 259th. The gap points the same way as tonight's spread, but most of the players who built it are gone.

Frederik Erichsen is the Highlanders' link to last season. He came off the bench all of last season and led Radford with 12 points at San Francisco. Zach Chu is in his second season in charge. Madsen is in his fourth at Cal.

The whistle and the glass

Radford's defense put San Francisco on the line all night. Its opponent free throw rate, which measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 61.4%, 326th nationally. Cal earned free throws at a 53.0% rate Monday. If both patterns hold, the Bears can keep scoring even when their shots stop falling, and Radford's thin, new rotation will have to play through foul trouble.

Where the number sits

Cal is a 15.5-point favorite with the total at 156.5. Neither number has moved since the line first appeared Wednesday morning. Radford pushed as a 14-point underdog at San Francisco, a team rated 117th, and that game finished under its total.

Tempo is the question for the total. Cal played at 81.5 possessions per 40 minutes against Adams State. Radford played at 67 in its opener. A fast Cal game pushes the total up, and every Radford turnover that turns into a Cal fast break does the same.