Santa Clara vs North Texas prediction: North Texas bets its ball-hawking defense against Santa Clara's rebuilt backcourt

Turnovers decide the Super Pit

Last December these teams played a 63-60 rock fight that Santa Clara won only after North Texas erased a late deficit and tied it inside the final minute. The rematch moves to Denton, and the Mean Green's identity hasn't changed under second-year coach Daniyal Robinson: they take the ball away.

North Texas forced turnovers on 22.2% of opponent possessions last season, 9th in Division I, and ranked 8th in steal rate. That pressure anchored a defense that ranked 25th nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions.

Santa Clara protected the ball well enough last season, ranking 86th in turnover rate. But the guards who did most of that work are largely gone. Christian Hammond left for NC State, and the Broncos are now running the offense through Kansas State transfer David Castillo, Creighton transfer Fedor Zugic and freshman Brayden Kuykendall, who started the Oct. 17 exhibition against Stanford. How those newcomers handle ball pressure in a road gym is the first thing to watch.

A WCC favorite, mostly new

Santa Clara was voted the preseason favorite in the WCC after reaching its first NCAA Tournament in 30 years. The roster behind that vote looks different, though. Only 40.1% of last season's minutes return, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide to these Broncos.

The returners who matter most are the two Preseason All-WCC picks. Jake Ensminger is a low-usage starter who posted an offensive rating of 139.3 last season. Sash Gavalyugov is the opposite type, a high-volume guard who carried a 24% usage rate off the bench. Castillo adds scoring after averaging 10.3 points at Kansas State.

Two availability notes are worth tracking. Chris Tadjo, who had been dealing with a knee problem, played 16 minutes against Stanford on Oct. 17 and looked healthy. Elijah Mahi, last season's starting forward, is seeking a fifth year but was not on the roster as of that exhibition, and Santa Clara hasn't said whether he will be cleared. Redshirt Brad Longcor III gave the Broncos another option with 11 points against Stanford, including the three that sealed the win.

Second chances and free throws

Santa Clara's clearest edge last season came on the offensive glass. The Broncos grabbed 36.4% of their own misses, 29th nationally, and North Texas ranked 293rd in defensive rebounding. Extra shots can offset a few lost possessions to Mean Green pressure.

The free throw line works the other way. North Texas fouled a lot last season, ranking 351st in opponent free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Santa Clara, though, almost never got there, with a free throw rate that ranked 362nd. Meanwhile the Mean Green ranked 56th in getting to the line themselves, so the whistle should favor the home team.

Can North Texas find points

The question for North Texas is offense. The Mean Green made only 29.9% of their threes last season, 351st nationally, and ranked 343rd in effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as one and a half field goals.

Je'Shawn Stevenson remains the engine. He averaged 17.4 points last season but shot 30.3% from three on heavy volume. UT Arlington transfer Cash Chavis, who scored 10.5 a game there, replaces departed point guard David Terrell Jr. North Texas's last outing was a 67-64 exhibition loss to Colorado on Oct. 18.

The game tips at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.