Saint Peter's vs South Carolina prediction: South Carolina's imported shooters test Saint Peter's turnover-hunting defense

Two new teams, one old blueprint

Very little of last season survives on either bench. South Carolina returns just 10.3% of last season's minutes after a 13-19 year, and Lamont Paris has 12 newcomers to sort out. Saint Peter's brings back 26.5% of its minutes, and Brent Bland, who averaged 13.9 points, left for Miami.

That makes last season's team numbers a rough guide at best. The adjusted ratings still say something about where each program sits. Once schedule strength was factored in, South Carolina finished last season with a net rating (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) that ranked 102nd of 365. Saint Peter's went 17-12, yet its adjusted net rating ranked 250th, a reminder that the Metro schedule flattered the record.

Can the transfers make shots

South Carolina's problem last season was simple: it took a lot of threes and missed most of them. The Gamecocks shot 31.0% from deep, 324th nationally. Paris rebuilt around shooters.

Kory Mincy arrives from George Mason after hitting 39.1% of his threes and averaging 14.3 points. Camden Heide, a role player at Texas, made 45.4% from deep. Shane Blakeney, from Drexel, scored 14.2 a game as a 33-game starter. Blakeney sat out the Wake Forest exhibition with an ankle issue but played against Campbell and was available as of Oct. 25.

The Peacocks' perimeter defense was solid last season, holding opponents to 32.3% from three (97th). But their offense is the bigger question. Saint Peter's posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 47.4%, 342nd in the country, and the returning backcourt doesn't promise a fix. Bryce Eaton, the leading returner, shot 31% from three with a 43.9% effective mark.

Where Saint Peter's steals possessions

The Peacocks' path to an upset runs through extra possessions. Last season they forced turnovers on 21.0% of opponent trips (18th) and ranked seventh in steal rate. They also grabbed 37.2% of their own misses, 16th nationally.

That offensive rebounding is the matchup to watch. South Carolina's defensive glass ranked 283rd last season, though the bigs who played those minutes are mostly gone. The new roster is bigger: South Carolina's minutes-weighted height is 78.1 inches against 75.5 for Saint Peter's. If that size translates to defensive rebounding, the Peacocks lose their best equalizer.

The flip side cuts against Saint Peter's. Its own defensive rebounding ranked 337th, and it sent opponents to the line at a rate that ranked 358th. Mincy shot 88.7% on free throws at George Mason, so a foul-prone Saint Peter's defense is a costly matchup.

Availability and tempo

South Carolina has injury questions. Grant Polk, one of only three Gamecocks returners, suffered a lower-leg injury in the Campbell exhibition and Paris put his absence at about six weeks as of roughly Oct. 26. Aleksas Bieliauskas, the Wisconsin transfer who started the opening exhibition, left the Campbell game with a lower-leg strain that Paris said is not believed to be long-term; his status for this game hasn't been announced. Palm Beach State transfer Nasir Hines is not eligible this season. Only nine players saw action against Wake Forest.

The Gamecocks did close strong against Campbell, finishing on a 16-2 run over the final 5:27 to win 77-68. Nothing recent was found on Saint Peter's injuries or roster news, and the Peacocks open at Seton Hall on Nov. 2, which will offer the first look at this group.

Expect a deliberate game. Saint Peter's played at 65 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 306th in pace, and it leans on half-court defense to keep scores down.

What to watch

• Second chances: whether South Carolina's added size neutralizes the Peacocks on the offensive glass.
• Ball security: South Carolina's guards against a defense that lives on steals.
• Mincy and Heide from deep: proven shooters on a team that couldn't hit threes last season.
• Seton Hall film: Saint Peter's Nov. 2 opener is the only data point before tip.