Saint Joseph's vs South Florida prediction: Chris Mack's rebuilt South Florida tests Saint Joseph's stubborn defense

Starting from ground zero

Chris Mack didn't dress it up at American media days. "We have one player on our roster that was part of the championship last year," he said. "So... we're starting from ground zero." The roster data backs him up: South Florida returns just 13.4% of last season's minutes.

That lone holdover is Josh Omojafo, a guard who posted a 128.6 offensive rating last season (points produced per 100 possessions) without needing many shots. Bryan Hodgson left for Providence after one season, an American title and an NCAA bid. That makes last season's 25-9 record and final adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) of 18.4, 42nd nationally, a portrait of a team that no longer exists.

Mack rebuilt through the portal, and the arrivals produced elsewhere. Sonny Wilson, a team captain, averaged 16.9 points at Toledo. The coaches still picked the Bulls third in the 13-team American, and they opened the Mack era with a 104-72 exhibition win over Saint Leo on Oct. 19.

The Hawks' defense travels

Steve Donahue's first Saint Joseph's team went 24-12, won two NIT games and earned him A-10 Coach of the Year honors, mostly on defense. The Hawks held opponents to a 47.2% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), 29th in Division I. They also ranked 20th in opponent free throw rate, which means they defended without fouling.

Saint Joseph's has more continuity than its opponent, with 36.7% of last season's minutes back. The open question is at the rim. Justice Ajogbor graduated, and Sean Logan, a 6-11 transfer who made the A-10 all-defensive team at Davidson, will start in his place. Logan blocked 2.4 shots a game last season in limited minutes. Gavin Marrs, a 7-footer from Oregon State, is the other frontcourt option, but neither big has much experience.

Who makes the threes

The Hawks' offense held them back last season. They took threes on 44.7% of their shots and made only 30.8%, which ranked 332nd. Jaiden Glover-Toscano is the returning centerpiece after scoring 15.7 points a game and shooting 34.6% from deep. Donahue also expects freshman BJ Ranson, a highly rated point guard recruit, to help from long range.

On last season's lines, South Florida's new backcourt shoots better. Andrej Shoshkikj made 45.1% of his threes at Stony Brook, and AJ Dancler hit 39.6% at Coastal Carolina on heavy volume. If those numbers carry over to a new uniform, the Bulls can stretch a Saint Joseph's defense whose strength was walling off the paint.

What to watch

• Tempo: Hodgson's Bulls ranked 34th in pace last season, while Saint Joseph's sat in the middle of the country at 169th. Mack's preferred speed with this roster is still unknown.
• Ball pressure: Hodgson's team ranked 17th in steal rate. Whether Mack's group pressures like that will tell you whether those numbers mean anything.
• Logan at the rim: If he protects the basket the way Ajogbor did, the Hawks' defensive formula survives the turnover.
• Setting: The game is the opener of the Veterans Classic doubleheader on a neutral floor at Navy's Alumni Hall. The teams last met in 2022, a 75-62 South Florida win.