Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames prediction: Rebuilt Robert Morris tests its ball security against UIC's pressure
The Colonials lost almost everyone from last season's 22-win team, and UIC's turnover-hungry defense is the worst possible place to learn on the job.
| Spread | UIC -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 143.5 |
- UIC's returning core and homecoming crowd should dictate a slow, grinding game while Robert Morris tries to steady a backcourt that is still learning each other.
- Robert Morris ball security against UIC's pressure: the Colonials turned it over on 27.9% of possessions at Nevada, and UIC forced turnovers on 33.3%.
- UIC is favored by 11, nudged up from 10.75. The 143.5 total hasn't budged, and both teams ranked bottom-60 in pace last season.
A Colonials roster starting over
Robert Morris ranked 47th nationally in offensive efficiency last season. Almost none of that team is left. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 24.1% of last season's minutes, and the biggest departures moved up a level: Ryan Prather Jr. to Iowa State, DeSean Goode to Miami and Nikos Chitikoudis to Xavier.
Andy Toole's reshaped group debuted Monday at Nevada and lost 86-49. The Colonials posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 29.6%, which ranks 359th of 360 teams. Ace Valentine, who shot 38.1% from three at UMBC last season, didn't hit one. One road game against a good Nevada team is a thin read, but it is the only read on this group, and the Colonials were still picked second in the Horizon League preseason poll.
Where UIC takes it away
The cleanest pressure point is the ball. Robert Morris coughed it up on 27.9% of its possessions at Nevada, and this is not a new problem. Even last season's veteran group ranked 303rd in turnover rate.
That runs straight into UIC's identity. The Flames forced turnovers on 33.3% of their opponent's possessions in the opener, fifth in the country, and last season's team ranked 21st in forced turnover rate. Mekhi Lowery is the point of the spear on the perimeter. If the new Colonial guards can't get into their offense cleanly, UIC gets the easy transition baskets that its half-court shooters haven't always provided.
Second chances changed hands
Last season Robert Morris lived on the offensive glass, grabbing 38.2% of its own misses, eighth nationally. That was the obvious way to attack a UIC team that ranked 244th in defensive rebounding.
The bodies behind that edge are gone with Goode and Chitikoudis. At Nevada the Colonials gave up second chances at an alarming clip, and forwards Samuel Obenjo and Eddie Cooke III, both bench pieces last season, now carry the frontcourt load. If they can't keep UIC off the offensive boards, Robert Morris loses the one area that used to be its edge in this game.
UIC's continuity is the edge
UIC returns 58.6% of last season's minutes from a team that reached the Missouri Valley Tournament title game before falling to UNI. Lowery, a senior who started every game last season, went 9 of 11 for 20 points in the opener. Rashund Washington Jr. and Jayce Nathaniel also scored in double figures.
Discount the 96-47 rout heavily. It came against St. Francis (IL), so UIC's eye-catching season numbers say little. The additions set the ceiling: Benny Gealer shot 41% from three at Stanford last season, and Ohio State transfer Gabe Cupps ran the offense comfortably in his debut.
The line and the history
The Flames are 11-point favorites, a tick up from 10.75 when the line first appeared. The total sits at 143.5 and hasn't moved. Both teams played slowly last season, with Robert Morris ranked 339th in pace and UIC 312th, and the Colonials stayed under the total in their opener.
History offers Robert Morris a little hope. UIC won the first five meetings in this series, then the Colonials beat the Flames 88-74 at home last November. Almost none of the players who did that remain, and Friday night is UIC's homecoming at Credit Union 1 Arena.
Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames line movement and odds
| Book | Colonials ML | Flames ML | Colonials spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +450 | -625 | +10.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +420 | -625 | +10.5 (-113) | o143.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +470 | -650 | +10.5 (-112) | o142.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +450 | -700 | +10.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +460 | -650 | +10.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +440 | -610 | +10.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +425 | -650 | +10.5 (-110) | o143.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames
On the Kalshi moneyline: Robert Morris Colonials: 65% of bets, 41% of the money; UIC Flames: 35% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UIC Flames -10.5: 43% of bets, 13% of the money; Robert Morris Colonials +10.5: 57% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 143.5: 25% of bets, 24% of the money; Under 143.5: 75% of bets, 77% of the money.
Key players
- KJ Garris Jr. (Robert Morris): Led the Colonials with 16 points and seven rebounds in his debut after shooting 42.5% from three last season at Cal State Fullerton.
- Ace Valentine (Robert Morris): Started 32 games at UMBC last season with a 58.6% effective field goal percentage but went scoreless from the field at Nevada.
- Darius Livingston (Robert Morris): The top returner shot 39.4% from three last season but opened at 14.3% from the field.
- Ta'Zir Smith (Robert Morris): Took on a 32.3% usage rate off the bench in the opener, the heaviest load on the team.
- Mekhi Lowery (UIC): Scored 20 points on 9-of-11 shooting with four steals in the opener, up from 8.1 points a game last season.
- Benny Gealer (UIC): Shot 41% from three on 210 attempts at Stanford last season, though he started 0 for 3 in his UIC debut.
- Jayce Nathaniel (UIC): Posted 13 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes in the opener.
- Gabe Cupps (UIC): Dished five assists and scored 12 points in 24 minutes in his first game with the Flames.
Numbers that matter
| RMU returning minutes | 24.1% | Last season's team numbers say little about this Robert Morris roster. |
|---|---|---|
| RMU turnover rate at Nevada | 27.9% | A long-running weakness, since last season's team ranked 303rd in turnover rate. |
| UIC forced turnover rate | 33.3% | Fifth nationally after the opener, backed by a 21st-place ranking last season. |
| RMU offensive rebound % last season | 38.2% | Eighth nationally, but the frontcourt that produced it has left. |
| UIC spread | -11 | Moved slightly toward UIC from -10.75 when the line first appeared. |
Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames: quick answers
Who is favored in Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames?
UIC is favored by 10.5 points (UIC -10.5).
What is the over/under for Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames?
The total is 143.5 points.
When is Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames?
No: Robert Morris Colonials has stayed at +10.5, and the total moved from 143.5 to 142.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Robert Morris Colonials vs UIC Flames?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Robert Morris Colonials: 65% of bets, 41% of the money; UIC Flames: 35% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UIC Flames -10.5: 43% of bets, 13% of the money; Robert Morris Colonials +10.5: 57% of bets, 87% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 143.5: 25% of bets, 24% of the money; Under 143.5: 75% of bets, 77% of the money.