Presbyterian Blue Hose vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction: Can Presbyterian's guards hold the ball against Georgia's grabby defense?

Steals against a new habit

Presbyterian arrives in Athens picked second in the Big South, a program best, with three players on preseason all-conference teams. Georgia arrives with a roster it rebuilt around transfers and a defense that took the ball away from its first opponent whenever it wanted. The game turns on whether the Blue Hose can keep the ball long enough to make this spread feel big.

In a 78-62 opening win over North Carolina Central, the Bulldogs forced turnovers on 25.7% of possessions, 58th nationally. Their steal rate of 17.6% ranks 32nd. Freddie Dilione V, a transfer from Penn State, had four steals despite a quiet shooting night.

Presbyterian was tidy in its opener, giving it away on 14.5% of possessions (turnovers per 100 possessions). That is a sharp break from last season, when the Blue Hose's 19.4% turnover rate ranked 333rd of 365. Wilson ran the offense and handed out six assists against St. Thomas. If last season's carelessness returns against a longer, faster SEC defense, the gap widens quickly.

Open threes on both ends

Presbyterian's defense was the real problem in its 87-78 home loss to St. Thomas-Minnesota. The Tommies made 50.0% of their threes, a rate that ranks 355th for the Blue Hose defense, and their effective field goal percentage (which counts threes as 1.5 makes) was among the worst a defense allowed on opening weekend.

Georgia may not be the team to punish that right away. The Bulldogs made just 23.1% of their threes against North Carolina Central, 316th nationally, while still launching freely. The shooting help should come from a transfer: Brady Dunlap made 45.1% from deep at Saint Louis last season, though he started 1 of 5 in his Georgia debut. If Georgia's shooters warm up against a defense this generous, the game gets out of hand early.

A rebuilt Georgia, and a hip

Georgia returns only 44.2% of last season's minutes. Its leading scorer, Jeremiah Wilkinson, left for Arkansas after averaging 17.4 points, and shot-blocking center Somto Cyril is now at Miami. That makes last season's ratings a loose guide, though the gap was wide: Georgia finished 31st in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), Presbyterian 263rd.

The carryover core is Kanon Catchings, Blue Cain and Marcus Millender, who combined for most of the opener's scoring. Forward Kareem Stagg missed that game with what the school called a "slight hip injury." As of reports earlier this week, his status for Friday was unresolved. White said "if he can go Friday, he'll definitely go," and that the staff would know near tip-off.

Georgia also got to the line often in its opener, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 50.8%, 56th nationally. Presbyterian's defense sends opponents to the stripe at a rate that ranks 250th.

Where Presbyterian can score

The Blue Hose's best path runs through Jaylen Peterson, a preseason first-team all-league forward who scored 18 on 7-of-11 shooting against St. Thomas. Newcomer EJ Smith, a junior guard, added 18 off the bench and made 4 of 5 threes.

The rest of the perimeter went cold. Erik Taylor went 0 of 8 from deep, and Carl Parrish, the other first-team preseason pick, scored 2 points. Georgia held North Carolina Central to 34.8% inside the arc, so Peterson will need help from the shooters.

Reading the number

Georgia is a 25-point favorite with a total of 156.5. The line has moved from Georgia -20.75 since it first appeared Friday morning, and the total has gone up from 155.5. Both teams are 0-1 against the spread. Georgia's opener stayed under a closing total of 164, while Presbyterian's went over 144.5.

The last time these programs played, in 2008, Georgia won 55-47 at home. Georgia leads the series heading into the ninth meeting. The total depends on whether Georgia's misses from three persist or Presbyterian's defense keeps giving up open looks.