Pennsylvania vs Navy prediction: Penn's returning shooters test a rebuilt Navy in Annapolis

Navy starts over

The 87th meeting in this old rivalry is the first in Annapolis since the 2016-17 season, and the home team barely resembles the one that went 26-8 last winter. Navy lost five of its top six scorers. Players on this season's roster accounted for just 40.6% of last season's minutes and 34.5% of its points.

The biggest holes are at the top. Austin Benigni scored 18.0 points a game and ran the offense. Center Aidan Kehoe added 15.2 points and 10.9 rebounds while shooting 73.1% from the floor. Patriot League voters picked Navy fifth, a long way from where this program sat a year ago. Jon Perry, in his second season as head coach, builds around senior guard Jinwoo Kim, who opens at George Washington on Nov. 2 before this game.

Penn is the opposite case. Seven of its top nine scorers return, and the Quakers were voted the Ivy League preseason favorite with 11 first-place votes. Fran McCaffery took them to the NCAA Tournament in his first season back at his alma mater.

Shooters against a perimeter wall

Penn's offense last season ran on the three. The Quakers made 38.4% from deep, 12th of 365 teams, while making just 47.2% inside the arc, 344th. TJ Power led that profile with a 43.2% mark on 183 attempts, and Michael Zanoni added 39% from long range.

Navy's defense last season was built to beat exactly that team. It held opponents to 29.7% from three, seventh nationally, even while allowing a lot of attempts. The open question is how much of that defense left with the departed rotation. If Navy's new pieces can't run teams off the line the same way, Penn gets the clean looks its offense needs. If they can, Penn's weak two-point finishing leaves few other answers.

Size tilts toward Penn

Penn's rotation is markedly bigger: its minutes-weighted average height is 78.2 inches, against 74.1 for Navy. That gap matters more now that Kehoe is gone, and Navy's top four returners are all guards.

Navy was a strong defensive rebounding team last season, grabbing 73.4% of opponents' misses, 39th nationally. Penn finished 235th on its own defensive glass. Augustus Gerhart, who shot 62.4% last season mostly around the rim, is the kind of interior player Navy no longer has an obvious match for.

Tempo and the recent series

Last season's Navy played at 63.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 355th in the country, while Penn sat at 69.2. A slow game with fewer possessions keeps a less-experienced home team within range, and Alumni Hall gives Navy a familiar floor for that plan.

The recent series favors the Midshipmen. Navy won the last meeting 86-78 at Penn in November 2024. Penn will have already played at Illinois on Nov. 5, a demanding opener that should show how the Quakers' rotation looks with Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed in the mix.