Oral Roberts vs Tulsa prediction: Tulsa's transfer-built roster opens the Mayor's Cup against Oral Roberts

Tulsa starts almost from scratch

Tulsa had a season to remember last year. It went 30-8, finished as NIT runner-up and posted the sixth-best offensive efficiency in Division I (points scored per 100 possessions). Almost all of that team is gone. Players on this season's roster logged just 15.1% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say a lot about Eric Konkol's system and very little about who runs it.

Konkol, in his fifth season, rebuilt through the portal. Tulsa pairs five returners with nine newcomers, including eight Division I transfers. The scoring should come from two transfer guards. Jeremiah Johnson averaged 15.2 points at Campbell, and Kobi Williams made 87 threes at Missouri State. Macon Emory gives the frontcourt a workhorse after playing 37.1 minutes a night at Delaware.

The first look at the group wasn't pretty. Tulsa lost a preseason exhibition at Oklahoma State on Oct. 23. Nobody has reported an injury, illness or eligibility issue on either side.

Oral Roberts keeps its core, loses its scorer

Kory Barnett's second Oral Roberts team has the opposite problem. Players back from last season account for 51.6% of last season's minutes, a far steadier base than Tulsa's. That base came from a team that went 10-23 and finished 307th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents).

Connor Dow anchors the returners. He started all 33 games last season and averaged 12.5 points. Luke Gray was the most efficient regular, with an offensive rating of 115.7 off the bench. The hole is Ty Harper. He averaged 17.7 points and used 32.4% of possessions while on the floor, and nobody on this roster has shown he can carry that load. Transfer guards Cam Haffner from Western Kentucky and Amire Robinson from Nevada played limited roles at their previous schools.

A shootout waiting to happen

Both programs live behind the arc. Last season Tulsa ranked 40th in 3-point attempt rate (the share of shots taken from three) and Oral Roberts ranked 44th. The difference was accuracy. Tulsa made 38.0% of its threes, while Oral Roberts made 32.3%.

That sets up the matchup to watch. Oral Roberts allowed opponents to hit 35.6% from three last season, 303rd nationally. Williams shot 37.2% from deep at Missouri State and Johnson 37.4% at Campbell. Jaylen Lawal, one of Tulsa's few returners, hit 39.1% in a bench role.

Oral Roberts also has to hold onto the ball. Its turnover rate ranked 312th last season. Tulsa didn't force many turnovers either, so a sloppy Golden Eagles night would be self-inflicted. Size tilts toward the hosts: Tulsa's minutes-weighted average height is 77.9 inches against 75.5 for Oral Roberts. Chris Loofe, who blocked 1.2 shots a game at Middle Tennessee, gives Tulsa a rim presence it lacked last season.

Rivalry stakes at the Reynolds Center

This is the PSO Mayor's Cup, and the Tulsa crosstown series has swung both ways recently. Oral Roberts won 79-70 at home in December 2023. Tulsa answered 85-76 at the Reynolds Center in November 2024 and won again at Oral Roberts last November.

The game is early on Tulsa's calendar, and the tip time hasn't been confirmed. Listings variously show 7 p.m., 8 p.m. ET or TBA. An early tip matters more for Tulsa, which needs every rep to sort out rotations. One more pressure point from last season: Oral Roberts ranked 290th in opponent free throw rate, while Tulsa ranked 44th in getting to the line. If the new Golden Hurricane guards attack the rim, foul trouble could thin a visiting rotation that lacks depth up front.