Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens prediction: Saint Louis shooters take aim at a rebuilt Northern Kentucky defense
The Billikens are making shots at an elite clip, and the Norse have struggled both to contest them and to hold onto the ball.
Saint Louis Billikens covered the closing spread (Northern Kentucky Norse +22.5). The game went over the closing total of 168.5.
| Spread | Saint Louis -23 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 168.5 |
- Saint Louis should control this with shot-making and ball security; Northern Kentucky's path to staying close runs through the free-throw line.
- Freshman Willie Foster, averaging 23.0 points, against a Saint Louis backcourt that includes preseason all-defensive pick Kellen Thames.
- Saint Louis is favored by 23.5, and the total has climbed from 166.5 to 169.25 with Northern Kentucky playing at the 44th-fastest pace.
Opening tip
Saint Louis has won 23 straight games at Chaifetz Arena, and two games into the season its offense looks like it never left last March. Northern Kentucky arrives with a roster rebuilt almost from scratch, a freshman scoring star and a defense that has not yet found its footing. At 23.5 points, the question is less who wins than how many clean looks the Norse can take away.
The Billikens can shoot
Saint Louis owns the eighth-best effective field goal percentage in Division I at 65.3%, a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times. The Billikens have made 45.8% of their threes, ninth nationally. That fits the program's identity, and the Missouri game gave the early numbers weight: Saint Louis closed as the underdog on a neutral floor and won 90-84.
Northern Kentucky's defense is the wrong opponent for that offense. Opponents have posted a 55.7% effective field goal rate against the Norse, 317th of 364. Trey Green, a preseason All-Atlantic 10 first-team pick, shot 44.2% from three last season. Ishan Sharma hit 41.7% from deep last season and went 3-for-7 against Missouri.
Giveaways the Norse can't afford
Northern Kentucky's turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions) is 22.1%, which ranks 328th. Saint Louis protects the ball far better at 13.8%. The catch for the Billikens is that they rarely force mistakes: they rank 303rd in forced turnover rate, so whatever the Norse give away will mostly be self-inflicted.
That puts the game in Eric Acker's hands. The La Salle transfer runs the offense and averages 7.3 assists. The 104-67 loss at Texas A&M showed how fast things unravel for this group when a stronger opponent turns loose possessions into runs.
Foster and the foul line
Northern Kentucky's best weapon is the whistle. The Norse rank 20th in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) and make 81.1% of their free throws. Saint Louis has been generous here, ranking 253rd in opponent free throw rate.
Willie Foster, a 6-2 freshman and the Horizon League's Freshman of the Week, carries the load at 23.0 points per game. He has made 94.7% of his free throws, so every drive that draws contact is close to a guaranteed two. Forward Noah Pagotto, a transfer from East Texas A&M, gives the Norse an efficient second option inside. Both Northern Kentucky wins came against teams rated far below Saint Louis.
Avila, continuity and the number
Robbie Avila won a preliminary injunction for a fifth season on Nov. 5, but the College Sports Commission refused Saint Louis a 16th roster spot and he sat out against Missouri. As of Nov. 6 it was unclear whether he would be cleared for Tuesday, and no later update has surfaced. The Billikens have won both games without him, and Quentin Jones, whose ankle clouded the preseason, has started both.
Even without Avila, Saint Louis returns 58.6% of last season's minutes. Northern Kentucky returns 23.8% and lost its top five scorers, so last season's 20-14 record says little about this team.
The spread has held steady while the total has risen from 166.5 to 169.25. Neither team has gone under yet this season. The first half deserves a look: the Norse have allowed 45.7 first-half points per game, 351st nationally.
Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens line movement and odds
| Book | Norse ML | Billikens ML | Norse spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1900 | -10000 | +23.5 (-115) | o168.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +23.5 (-120) | o167.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | +2000 | -6500 | +22.5 (-105) | o168.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +2500 | -10000 | +22.5 (-110) | o168.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +2800 | -9000 | +23 (-110) | o168.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +2400 | -10000 | +23.5 (-110) | o167.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +22.5 (+100) | o167.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +23 (-110) | o168.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Kentucky Norse: 86% of bets, 17% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens: 14% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Louis Billikens -23.5: 34% of bets, 63% of the money; Northern Kentucky Norse +23.5: 66% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 167.5: 82% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 167.5: 18% of bets, 13% of the money.
Key players
- Willie Foster (Northern Kentucky): Averages 23.0 points on a 30.8% usage rate and has made 94.7% of his free throws.
- Eric Acker (Northern Kentucky): The La Salle transfer averages 7.3 assists and handed out 12 against South Dakota.
- Noah Pagotto (Northern Kentucky): Has shot 69.2% from the field with a 142.2 offensive rating, including 30 points at South Dakota.
- Trey Green (Saint Louis): Shot 44.2% from three last season and scored 16 with six assists against Missouri.
- Ishan Sharma (Saint Louis): Carries a 75% effective field goal rate through two games after hitting 41.7% from three last season.
- Amari McCottry (Saint Louis): Scored 17 on 7-for-11 shooting in the Missouri win after missing the preseason exhibition.
- Kellen Thames (Saint Louis): Has shot 83.3% from the field in 18.0 minutes per game off a preseason all-defensive nod.
Numbers that matter
| Saint Louis effective FG% | 65.3% | Eighth in Division I, against a Northern Kentucky defense ranked 317th in the same stat. |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Kentucky turnover rate | 22.1% | Ranks 328th, though Saint Louis forces few turnovers itself. |
| Northern Kentucky free throw rate | 54.9% | Ranks 20th and is the Norse's clearest path to points against Saint Louis. |
| Spread | -23.5 | Saint Louis has been favored by this number since the line first appeared. |
| Total | 169.25 | Up from 166.5, with Northern Kentucky playing at the 44th-fastest pace in the country. |
Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens: quick answers
What was the final score of Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Northern Kentucky Norse 63, Saint Louis Billikens 125 (final). Saint Louis Billikens covered the closing spread (Northern Kentucky Norse +22.5). The game went over the closing total of 168.5.
Who is favored in Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Saint Louis is favored by 23 points (Saint Louis -23).
What is the over/under for Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
The total is 168.5 points.
When is Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Yes: Northern Kentucky Norse opened +23.5 and is now +22.5, and the total moved from 166.5 to 168.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Northern Kentucky Norse vs Saint Louis Billikens?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Northern Kentucky Norse: 86% of bets, 17% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens: 14% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Saint Louis Billikens -23.5: 34% of bets, 63% of the money; Northern Kentucky Norse +23.5: 66% of bets, 37% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 167.5: 82% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 167.5: 18% of bets, 13% of the money.