North Carolina Central vs VMI prediction: TJ Johnson and VMI's three-ball face an NCCU roster built from scratch

A roster built from scratch

North Carolina Central reached the MEAC tournament final in March and lost 70-63 to Howard. Almost nobody from that team is still in Durham. The Eagles return 3.1% of last season's minutes, and LeVelle Moton added 14 newcomers. Their leading scorer, Gage Lattimore, took his 16.6 points a game to James Madison.

That makes last season's NCCU team numbers a weak guide. The 14-18 record and the final adjusted net efficiency rank of 346th (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) describe players who mostly aren't here. The only meaningful returner, guard Ryan Archey, averaged 3.2 points in 8.0 minutes.

What carries over is Moton and the transfers. Christian Meeks started 27 games at Morgan State and shot 55.3% from the floor. Daniel Mbaeteka, a 7-foot junior center, followed Shaw teammate Isaiah Buckley. The MEAC preseason poll puts NCCU in a tight group with Morgan State and Norfolk State, chasing Howard.

VMI keeps letting it fly

VMI is the more familiar team, which is not the same as the better one. The Keydets went 6-26 last season, and one preseason ranking slots them 324th of 325. They return 45.8% of their minutes, and the piece that matters most is TJ Johnson.

Johnson averaged 18.3 points and made 110 threes at 35.5%. He is the engine of an offense that took 54.0% of its shots from three last season, second-most in Division I. The problem was accuracy: VMI ranked 250th in 3-point percentage and 306th in effective field goal percentage (which counts threes 1.5 times). Its best pure shooter, Linus Holmstrom, left for Youngstown State.

Rickey Bradley Jr., hurt in practice a year ago, missed all of 2025-26 and returns for his senior season. AJ Clark, who started 22 games and grabbed 6.0 rebounds, has been described as recovering from injury and possibly back to full strength; VMI hasn't confirmed his status.

Pressure against ball security

Moton's teams turn people over, and coaching style tends to survive a roster rebuild better than personnel does. Last season NCCU forced turnovers on 21.8% of possessions, 10th in the country, with a steal rate that ranked 18th.

VMI is built to absorb that. The Keydets turned it over on 14.7% of possessions, 43rd nationally, though their lead ball handler, Tan Yildizoglu, is now at Siena. Whether new guards handle NCCU's pressure is a real question for both sides.

The glass is where both teams struggled. NCCU ranked 364th in defensive rebound percentage, and VMI ranked 331st in offensive rebound percentage. A long-rebound-heavy game is likely given how many threes VMI takes. NCCU's minutes-weighted roster height of 78.3 inches tops VMI's 77.1, and Mbaeteka gives the Eagles size the Keydets lack inside.

Openers come first

Both teams play on Monday, Nov. 2, nine days before this one. NCCU opens at Georgia, a likely lopsided road test that will at least show how its newcomers fit. VMI hosts VU Lynchburg in its opener.

This game tips at 6 PM ET on ESPN+ at Cameron Hall, with no prior meetings between the programs in recent seasons. VMI has the home floor and the continuity. NCCU has the coach who has been in place and the taller roster. With no line posted, those openers will be the first real evidence of either team.