NJIT vs VCU prediction: NJIT's Rutgers-to-Richmond back-to-back runs into a reloaded VCU

One night, two road gyms

The schedule makes this one hard for NJIT. The Highlanders play at Rutgers on Tuesday, Nov. 10, then tip off at the Siegel Center the next evening. That means a road game at Rutgers followed by a trip to the Siegel Center, with no day in between.

The talent gap was already wide. Adjusted net efficiency measures how many more points a team scores than it allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents. In last season's final ratings, VCU's 17.2 ranked 47th of 365 and NJIT's -18.7 ranked 337th. Both rosters have changed since then, so treat those as starting points. Neither team has played a game yet this season, and no injury news has surfaced for either side.

Where NJIT finds points

Shooting was NJIT's problem last season. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 field goals, was 46.7, ranked 351st. The Highlanders made 30.3% of their threes, which ranked 344th.

David Bolden is the main returner and the player the offense runs through. He started all 33 games, but his 41.9 effective field goal percentage and 31.8% three-point shooting on 220 attempts show how hard every basket was. Quentin Duncan, at 37.6% from deep, was the best returning shooter.

VCU's defense takes away the shots NJIT needs most. The Rams allowed one of the lowest three-point attempt rates in the country last season, ranking 319th of 365 in that style stat, and they held opponents to 48.7% inside the arc, 69th nationally. A team that struggles to shoot needs open looks, and VCU rarely gave them up.

VCU retools the shooting

Phil Martelli Jr. starts his second season after the Rams went 28-8 and won both the Atlantic 10 regular-season and tournament titles. The biggest loss is Terrence Hill Jr., who scored 15.0 points per game and left for Tennessee.

The replacement shooter arrives from Sacred Heart. Nyle Ralph-Beyer made 44% of his threes on 209 attempts there last season. He joins a core that returns 59.4% of last season's minutes. NJIT returns 37.8%, so last season's numbers say less about the Highlanders than about the Rams.

Lazar Djokovic, an All-Atlantic 10 first-team pick, anchors the frontcourt after posting a 125 offensive rating. Nyk Lewis, the league's Rookie of the Year, and All-Defensive Team guard Brandon Jennings are back with him.

Living at the line

VCU got to the free-throw line often last season. Its free throw rate, measured as free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, was 42.0, which ranked 27th. NJIT allowed a rate of 37.3, ranked 261st. That fits poorly with a team playing the second night of a back-to-back.

The Rams also have the size edge, at 78.1 inches on a minutes-weighted basis to NJIT's 76.5. Middle Tennessee transfer Torey Alston pulled down 7.9 rebounds per game last season. He'll face an NJIT front line that lost center Melvyn Ebonkoli and ranked 272nd in defensive rebound percentage.