Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers prediction: UAB christens renovated Bartow needing answers on defense against Nicholls
A 99-point opening-night beating left UAB with defensive questions, and a Nicholls backcourt that moved the ball well in its opener gets the first look at the answers.
| Spread | UAB -15.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 158 |
- UAB's transfer guards should control this, but a defense that gave up 99 to McNeese must tighten before the margin stretches.
- Elijah Duval and UAB's trips to the line should decide it against a Nicholls backcourt run by Sheridan Sharp, who handed out six assists in the opener.
- UAB is a 15.5-point favorite with a 156.0 total; the line has moved from 12.75 and the total from 155.5, and UAB's opener flew over a 152.5 closing total.
McNeese exposed UAB's defense
UAB christens a renovated Bartow Arena tonight, the first men's game in the rebuilt building, and it does so carrying the bruise of a 99-78 loss to McNeese. That was a quality opponent, one ranked 63rd in adjusted net efficiency, but the way the Blazers lost matters more than the score.
McNeese posted an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 63.8% against UAB, a mark that ranks 349th of 360 among defenses nationally, one of the worst. UAB also secured just 56.2% of McNeese's misses on the defensive glass, 338th. Shots went in, and the ones that didn't came back. Against Nicholls, the first job is simply ending possessions after one shot.
Two rosters built from scratch
Neither of these teams resembles last season's version. Nicholls returns 10.0% of last season's minutes and plays its first road game under first-year coach Darion Brown. UAB returns 9.7%, with Salim London the lone holdover.
Last season's final adjusted ratings had UAB 112th and Nicholls 238th, but the players who earned those numbers are largely elsewhere. The better guide is what each staff brought in. The American's coaches picked UAB sixth, and two of its transfers, Justyn Fernandez and Deuce Jones, made the preseason all-conference second team.
UAB's backcourt carries the load
Elijah Duval, a transfer from Southern Utah, was the one Blazer who looked fully comfortable against McNeese, scoring 15 points with five assists. Fernandez, who shot 40.3% from three at Delaware last season, hit two early threes and finished with 11. Jones had a harder night, going 2-of-7 from the floor.
What kept UAB afloat was the foul line. The Blazers drew free throws at a rate of 58.8% of their field goal attempts, 31st nationally, and made 86.7% of them. A guard-heavy roster that attacks the paint and converts at the stripe can build a lead even when the jumpers aren't falling, and that is the most dependable path to a double-digit margin here.
Nicholls' guards and the ball
Nicholls opened with a 110-56 rout of North American, an opponent with no Division I rating, so its gaudy early efficiency numbers say little about tonight. The individual lines are more useful. Sheridan Sharp, who averaged 4.4 points at Southern Indiana last season, ran the offense with 14 points and six assists. Jordan Matthews went 4-of-9 from three. Christian Winborne, one of the few returners, started at guard.
The Colonels' best chance to keep this close is pressure on the ball. UAB turned it over on 20.3% of its possessions against McNeese, a sloppy figure for a backcourt full of experienced transfers. If Nicholls turns those into runouts, the Blazers' defensive problems compound.
Where the number sits
UAB is favored by 15.5, and the total is 156.0. The line has moved from UAB -12.75 to -15.5 since our feed first saw the game this morning, and the total has moved up from 155.5. No injuries have been reported for either team heading in.
The Blazers did not cover as a 3-point underdog against McNeese, and that game went over its 152.5 closing total. The total question tonight is whether UAB's defense was a one-night lapse or a real problem; a repeat would push this past the number, while a tightened defense against a new-look Nicholls offense would make a big UAB win the more likely route.
Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers line movement and odds
| Book | Colonels ML | Blazers ML | Colonels spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +825 | -1400 | +15.5 (-115) | o157.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +750 | -1430 | +15.5 (-118) | o157.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +900 | -1600 | +15.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +1100 | -2500 | +15.5 (-115) | o158.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +900 | -1500 | +15.5 (-115) | o158 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +980 | -2000 | +14.5 (-102) | o157.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +750 | -1400 | +15.5 (-115) | o157.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +900 | -1600 | +15 (-110) | o158.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Nicholls St Colonels: 62% of bets, 15% of the money; UAB Blazers: 38% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UAB Blazers -16.5: 41% of bets, 29% of the money; Nicholls St Colonels +16.5: 59% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 75% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 157.5: 25% of bets, 12% of the money.
Key players
- Elijah Duval (UAB): Led UAB with 15 points and five assists against McNeese on a team-high usage rate of 28.2%.
- Justyn Fernandez (UAB): A preseason all-conference pick who averaged 16.6 points and shot 40.3% from three at Delaware last season.
- Deuce Jones (UAB): Scored 12 against McNeese despite a 2-of-7 shooting night, leaning on the free-throw line.
- Sheridan Sharp (Nicholls): Ran the offense in the opener with 14 points and six assists in 19 minutes.
- Jordan Matthews (Nicholls): Hit 4-of-9 from three for 12 points against North American.
- Christian Winborne (Nicholls): One of the few holdovers, he averaged 7.9 points last season and started the opener.
Numbers that matter
| UAB spread | -12.75 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the line this morning. |
|---|---|---|
| McNeese eFG% vs. UAB | 63.8% | Ranks 349th, the clearest sign of how badly UAB's defense performed in its opener. |
| UAB free throw rate | 58.8% | Ranks 31st and gives UAB's guards a reliable scoring route against a rebuilt Nicholls defense. |
| Nicholls returning minutes | 10.0% | Paired with a first-year coach, it makes last season's Nicholls numbers a weak guide. |
Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers: quick answers
Who is favored in Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers?
UAB is favored by 15.5 points (UAB -15.5).
What is the over/under for Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers?
The total is 158 points.
When is Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers?
Yes: Nicholls St Colonels opened +11.5 and is now +15.5, and the total moved from 155.5 to 157.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Nicholls St Colonels vs UAB Blazers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Nicholls St Colonels: 62% of bets, 15% of the money; UAB Blazers: 38% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: UAB Blazers -16.5: 41% of bets, 29% of the money; Nicholls St Colonels +16.5: 59% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 75% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 157.5: 25% of bets, 12% of the money.