Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: Tulane's porous early defense gives a rebuilt Nicholls a path
The Green Wave can win this at the foul line, but they have yet to show they can get stops, and Nicholls arrives built to steal extra possessions.
Tulane Green Wave covered the closing spread (Nicholls St Colonels +9.5). The game went under the closing total of 153.5.
| Spread | Tulane -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 153 |
- Tulane should win the free-throw battle, but a defense allowing 41.9% from three keeps Nicholls within reach.
- Nicholls' pressure, forcing turnovers on 25.6% of possessions, against Krystian Lewis and his 32.1% usage rate.
- The line has moved from Tulane -7.5 to Tulane -9.5, and the total from 151.5 to 152.5; Tulane is 0-2 against the spread.
Tulane still can't get stops
Tulane has won one game and covered none, and its defense is the reason. Two home games into a heavily rebuilt season, the Green Wave are scoring enough. The trouble is at the other end, where opponents are making 41.9% of their threes, 343rd in Division I.
The 92.5 points allowed per game come with an asterisk. The opener against UT Martin went to double overtime before Tulane survived 100-98. The second game had no such excuse. Jackson State, ranked 351st in adjusted net efficiency, left Devlin Fieldhouse with an 87-85 win after Tulane closed as a 12.25-point favorite.
Nothing about that suggests a defense ready to bury anyone. Tonight's tip is 7:30 p.m. ET.
Steals against the whistle
Nicholls plays in passing lanes under first-year coach Darion Brown. The Colonels force turnovers on 25.6% of opponent possessions, 39th nationally, and they have protected the ball well on their own end. Tulane offers little pushback there: the Green Wave rank 271st in forcing turnovers, so Nicholls should get plenty of clean trips.
Tulane's answer is the foul line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 60.8%, seventh in the country, and Lewis won the opener with a free throw with one second left. Nicholls sits at the other end of that chart, 351st in free throw rate. The Colonels need their pressure to make up the points Tulane collects at the line, and that tradeoff likely decides the margin.
Lewis carries Tulane
Krystian Lewis, a junior guard who transferred from UL Monroe, opened his Tulane career with a career-high 40 points, along with seven rebounds and five assists. He is averaging 25.0 points through two games and uses 32.1% of Tulane's possessions while he is on the floor. TJ Nadeau is the spacing, at 7 of 12 from three, and Joah Chappelle has been efficient off the bench.
Nicholls is close to a new team. The Colonels return just 10.0% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about them. Christian Winborne is the main holdover. Transfers Doyel Cockrill III and Sheridan Sharp handle the ball, and Sharp filled the stat sheet in the opener. AJ Dent has been the steadiest scorer.
The 110-56 rout of North American inflates every Nicholls season number. The trip to UAB is the better read. Nicholls lost 70-63 there to a team ranked 112th in adjusted net efficiency, a far stronger opponent than either team Tulane has faced.
What the number says
Tulane is favored by 9.5, with a total of 152.5. The line has moved from Tulane -7.5 to Tulane -9.5 since our feed first saw the game this morning, and the total has gone from 151.5 to 152.5, with nine books quoting it.
The early records lean against Tulane covering. The Green Wave are 0-2 against the spread, and both of their games went over. Nicholls covered as a 15.25-point underdog at UAB, and that game stayed under. Tulane also won last season's meeting here 82-72.
The question for the spread is whether Tulane's free throws outrun its defense. The question for the total is whether Nicholls' turnovers shorten Tulane's possessions before the Green Wave get to the line.
Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave line movement and odds
| Book | Colonels ML | Wave ML | Colonels spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +325 | -425 | +9.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +310 | -420 | +8.5 (-112) | o153.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +320 | -410 | +9.5 (-118) | o153.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | +360 | -500 | +9.5 (-115) | o153.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +325 | -425 | +9.5 (-115) | o153 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +350 | -465 | +9.5 (-110) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -425 | +8.5 (-110) | o153.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +320 | -420 | +9 (-110) | o153 (-110) |
Where the money is on Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave
On the Kalshi moneyline: Nicholls St Colonels: 29% of bets, 8% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 71% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulane Green Wave -9.5: 49% of bets, 54% of the money; Nicholls St Colonels +9.5: 52% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 93% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 151.5: 7% of bets, 2% of the money.
Key players
- Krystian Lewis (Tulane): Averaging 25.0 points on a 32.1% usage rate, including a career-high 40 in the opener.
- TJ Nadeau (Tulane): Has made 7 of 12 threes after shooting 46.7% from deep last season at Detroit Mercy.
- Joah Chappelle (Tulane): Scoring 12.5 points per game on 80% shooting from the field off the bench.
- KJ Greene (Tulane): Has played 40.5 minutes per game, with a 126.2 offensive rating.
- AJ Dent (Nicholls): Leads Nicholls with 12.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game.
- Sheridan Sharp (Nicholls): The Southern Indiana transfer is averaging 6.5 assists and had 14 points in the opener.
- Doyel Cockrill III (Nicholls): Averaged 11.8 points last season at Chicago State and is scoring 10.0 per game so far.
- Hunter Carter (Nicholls): Averaging 3.5 steals per game, the sharpest edge of the Nicholls pressure.
Numbers that matter
| Tulane opponent 3-point % | 41.9% | 343rd in Division I, the clearest sign of a defense still searching. |
|---|---|---|
| Tulane free throw rate | 60.8% | Seventh nationally, against a Nicholls team that ranks 351st in getting to the line. |
| Nicholls forced turnover rate | 25.6% | 39th nationally, facing a Tulane team that forces few turnovers of its own. |
| Nicholls returning minutes | 10.0% | Almost nothing is left from last season, so last season's numbers are a weak guide. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Tulane's number hasn't moved since our feed first saw it, even though the Green Wave are 0-2 against the spread. |
Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave: quick answers
What was the final score of Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
Nicholls St Colonels 63, Tulane Green Wave 77 (final). Tulane Green Wave covered the closing spread (Nicholls St Colonels +9.5). The game went under the closing total of 153.5.
Who is favored in Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
Tulane is favored by 9.5 points (Tulane -9.5).
What is the over/under for Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
The total is 153 points.
When is Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
Yes: Nicholls St Colonels opened +8 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 153.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Nicholls St Colonels vs Tulane Green Wave?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Nicholls St Colonels: 29% of bets, 8% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 71% of bets, 92% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulane Green Wave -9.5: 49% of bets, 54% of the money; Nicholls St Colonels +9.5: 52% of bets, 46% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 151.5: 93% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 151.5: 7% of bets, 2% of the money.