Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens prediction: Robbie Avila's injunction returns Saint Louis its center for Missouri
A court ruling on the eve of the first Missouri-Saint Louis game in 25 seasons restores the reigning A-10 Player of the Year to a Billikens roster built to shoot.
| Spread | Missouri -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 161.5 |
- Expect a quick, high-scoring game in which Saint Louis's returning shooters and Avila test a Missouri roster that is thin, young and mostly new.
- Robbie Avila against Missouri's frontcourt, which is without Jaylen Carey and Luke Northweather and leans on freshman Toni Bryant and Bryson Tiller.
- Missouri is favored by 2.5, down from 3 when our feed first saw it; Saint Louis finished last season 30th in adjusted net efficiency.
Avila is back in the picture
A day before tip, Saint Louis got its best player back. Robbie Avila, the 6-10 center and reigning A-10 Player of the Year, won a preliminary injunction Thursday that grants him a fifth season, and Josh Schertz said he will be dressed and available against Missouri.
That changes what the Billikens look like. Last season Avila averaged 12.8 points and made 41.0% of his threes, a center who pulls the opposing big man out to the arc. His offensive rating of 130.9 (points produced per 100 possessions) ranked among the best on a team that went 29-6 and won the A-10 regular-season title. Over the summer Schertz was still sorting through big-man options. Now he has the one he already trusted.
The stakes go beyond one November game. The teams have not played since the 2001-02 season, Missouri leads the series 21-19, and the game sits on a neutral floor in Saint Louis's home city, the same arena where Missouri's season ended in the NCAA first round last March.
Missouri's new roster, already thinned
Missouri brings back only 19.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. The bigger issue is who is missing. Four players are unavailable as of Nov. 3: Annor Boateng (season-ending leg injury), CJ Gunn (ruled ineligible by the SEC), projected starter Jaylen Carey (suspended indefinitely) and 6-11 center Luke Northweather (undisclosed injury).
What is left is talented. Five-star freshman Jason Crowe Jr. scored 23 in the 111-50 opener over Cleveland State and carried a 30.4% usage rate, the share of possessions he finished. BYU transfer Kennard Davis Jr. hit 4 of 6 threes off the bench. Mark Mitchell, playing under his own temporary injunction, ran the offense with 10 assists. Cleveland State ranked 324th in adjusted net efficiency, so the margin proves little.
Saint Louis can shoot
The Billikens return 58.6% of last season's minutes, enough that last year's profile still means something. That team made 39.6% of its threes, third in Division I, and held opponents to a 44.5% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes), best in the country.
Trey Green is the sharpest returning weapon after hitting 44.2% from deep last season on 208 attempts. Ishan Sharma made 41.7%. Add Avila spacing the floor, and Missouri's young guards will spend the night chasing shooters through screens. Kellen Thames, an All-A-10 pick, adds a downhill threat: he shot 100% from the field in the Lehigh win.
The glass favors Missouri
Missouri's edge is size. Its minutes-weighted average height is 79.9 inches against 78.1 for Saint Louis. In the opener the Tigers rebounded 41.4% of their own misses, while Saint Louis grabbed only 21.4% of its misses against Lehigh, 330th nationally. Tiller pulled down 9 boards and Bryant blocked 3 shots in 20 minutes.
With Northweather and Carey out, that size is concentrated in a few bodies. If Avila draws Tiller or Bryant to the perimeter, Missouri's second-chance advantage could shrink.
Where the market sits
Missouri is a 2.5-point favorite, half a point shorter than the 3 our feed first recorded on Thursday, the day of Avila's ruling. The total has dipped to 161.75 from 163. Both teams covered and went over in their openers.
The price favors the deeper recruiting class over the stronger résumé. Last season Saint Louis finished 30th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), and Missouri finished 57th. With little of that Missouri team left, the market is betting on new talent. Alon Michaeli missed a game earlier with an ankle sprain; he played in the opener, and no update on his status for tonight has surfaced.
Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Billikens ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -150 | +115 | -2.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -152 | +123 | -2.5 (-112) | o161.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | -155 | +130 | -2.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | -155 | +135 | -2.5 (-115) | o162.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 | -2.5 (-115) | o162 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -152 | +126 | -3.5 (-102) | o161.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -150 | +125 | -2.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 | -3.5 (-110) | o160.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens
On the Kalshi moneyline: Missouri Tigers: 65% of bets, 89% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens: 35% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri Tigers -2.5: 62% of bets, 47% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens +2.5: 38% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 70% of bets, 55% of the money; Under 161.5: 30% of bets, 45% of the money.
Key players
- Jason Crowe Jr. (Missouri): Scored 23 in the opener on 4-of-7 shooting from three with a 30.4% usage rate.
- Mark Mitchell (Missouri): Led Missouri last season at 18.3 points per game and dished 10 assists against Cleveland State.
- Kennard Davis Jr. (Missouri): Posted 19 points in 27 minutes, hitting 4 of 6 threes, in his Missouri debut.
- Toni Bryant (Missouri): Had 15 points and 3 blocks in 20 minutes in the opener.
- Robbie Avila (Saint Louis): Cleared by a Nov. 5 injunction after averaging 12.8 points and shooting 41.0% from three last season.
- Trey Green (Saint Louis): Made 44.2% of his threes last season on 208 attempts.
- Kellen Thames (Saint Louis): Scored 15 against Lehigh without missing a field goal.
- Quentin Jones (Saint Louis): Played through an earlier ankle sprain to score 15 with a 25.2% usage rate in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Missouri returning minutes | 19.4% | So little returns that last season's Missouri numbers are a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| SLU 3-point % last season | 39.6% | Third in Division I, with most of the shooters back plus Avila. |
| Avila 3-point % last season | 41.0% | A stretch center who can pull Missouri's bigs away from the rim. |
| SLU offensive rebound % this season | 21.4% | Ranked 330th after the opener, the area where Missouri's size could matter. |
| Spread | -2.5 | Missouri's price has moved half a point toward Saint Louis since our feed first saw it. |
Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens: quick answers
Who is favored in Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Missouri is favored by 2.5 points (Missouri -2.5).
What is the over/under for Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens?
The total is 161.5 points.
When is Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens?
Yes: Missouri Tigers opened -3.5 and is now -2.5, and the total moved from 162.5 to 161.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Missouri Tigers vs Saint Louis Billikens?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Missouri Tigers: 65% of bets, 89% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens: 35% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Missouri Tigers -2.5: 62% of bets, 47% of the money; Saint Louis Billikens +2.5: 38% of bets, 53% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 161.5: 70% of bets, 55% of the money; Under 161.5: 30% of bets, 45% of the money.