Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction: Oklahoma needs a cleaner night after its opening-week stumble
The Sooners lost at home to East Texas A&M as a 30.5-point favorite, and now they face last season's lowest-rated team in Division I with a roster still sorting itself out.
| Spread | Oklahoma -40.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 152.5 |
- Oklahoma should control this from the start; the real question is whether it shoots and finishes cleanly enough to pull away like a 41.5-point favorite.
- Oklahoma got to the line often in the opener but shot poorly there: a free throw rate ranked 21st but 53.1% from the stripe.
- Oklahoma is -41.5 with a 152.5 total; the line has moved from -38.5 to -41.5 since our feed first saw it, and the Sooners' opener stayed under a 149.0 closing total.
A rebound game in Norman
Oklahoma's season opened with a jolt. The Sooners lost 68-64 at home to East Texas A&M, a team that ranked 292nd in adjusted net efficiency, after closing as 30.5-point favorites. They trailed 25-34 at halftime and never fully recovered.
Friday's 8 p.m. ET tip in Norman is the obvious chance to reset. Mississippi Valley State finished last season 365th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, which measures points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents. The last meeting, in 2023, ended 82-43. The question isn't really who wins. It's whether Porter Moser's sixth Oklahoma team looks like the group that finished last season 22nd in adjusted offense, or the one that sputtered on Monday.
Trips to the line, misses there
The opener showed one strength and one glaring flaw. Oklahoma got to the foul line constantly, posting a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 61.5%, 21st nationally. It then made just 53.1% of those free throws, 339th.
That matters here because the Delta Devils fouled heavily last season, allowing an opponent free throw rate that ranked 363rd of 365. Mississippi Valley State returns none of last season's minutes, so that number is a weak guide. Still, a team this short on size and experience against a physical Sooners frontcourt should mean plenty of free throws for Oklahoma. If those start falling, a big margin gets much easier to reach.
The other cleanup item is ball security. Oklahoma turned it over on 22.7% of its possessions in the opener, 301st in the country, after ranking 34th in that stat last season.
A program starting from zero
Mississippi Valley State is beginning again. Mike Davis, the former Indiana, UAB, Texas Southern and Detroit Mercy coach, took over in late April after two seasons as a Memphis assistant. He inherits a program that went 3-30 last season and has finished last in the SWAC seven straight years.
The roster is entirely new: 0.0% of last season's minutes return. This is the Delta Devils' season opener and the first of 14 straight road games, with no home date until Jan. 9. The program has never beaten a high-major opponent. With no games on this roster's record, the main thing worth knowing is that most of the players here have never played together.
Who carries Oklahoma
The Sooners return just 38.4% of last season's minutes, and the biggest returner is unavailable for now. Senior guard Xzayvier Brown, last season's leading returning scorer at 15.4 points per game, missed the opener with a lower-body injury. His return is expected, but no date has been confirmed.
Without him, the transfers carried the scoring. Pop Isaacs, who came from Texas A&M, scored 15 on efficient shooting. Derrion Reid posted 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. Oklahoma blocked 23.3% of opponents' two-point tries in the opener, 14th nationally, which is bad news for a Mississippi Valley State team that made just 46.0% of its twos last season.
B.J. Edwards is the other storyline. A Cleveland County judge granted him a temporary restraining order on Oct. 30, clearing him for a fifth season. He went 1-of-7 from the floor in his debut, though he added four steals. Last season at SMU he averaged 12.7 points. Moser called him a physical guard who can rebound and create plays.
Where the number sits
Oklahoma is a 41.5-point favorite with a total of 152.5. Both numbers have moved since our feed first recorded the game Friday morning: the spread has gone from -38.5 to -41.5 and the total from 148.5 to 152.5. The Sooners failed to cover in the opener, and that game finished under a 149.0 closing total.
The early style numbers point toward a slower game. Oklahoma played at 65.5 possessions per 40 minutes in the opener, 328th nationally, and shot 25.0% from three. A slow pace and cold outside shooting make it harder to reach both a total this high and a margin this wide. Brown's availability and Oklahoma's free throw shooting are the two things most likely to change that.
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Sooners ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +41.5 (-118) | o152.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +40.5 (-107) | o152.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +40.5 (-108) | o152.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +1500 | -7500 | +40.5 (-115) | o152.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +40000 | -100000 | +41 (-110) | o152.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +39.5 (-114) | o143.5 (-120) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +40.5 (-105) | o152.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +39.5 (-115) | o149.5 (-120) |
Key players
- Derrion Reid (Oklahoma): Posted 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks in the opener after an offensive rating of 129 last season.
- Pop Isaacs (Oklahoma): Led the Sooners with 15 points in the opener on a 71.4% effective field goal percentage.
- B.J. Edwards (Oklahoma): Cleared by a court order on Oct. 30, he averaged 12.7 points at SMU last season but shot 14.3% in his debut.
- Xzayvier Brown (Oklahoma): Averaged 15.4 points last season but missed the opener with a lower-body injury and has no confirmed return date.
- Tarique Foster (Mississippi Valley State): Averaged 5.8 points at UAlbany last season and shot 33.3% from three.
Numbers that matter
| Oklahoma opener result | L 64-68 | The Sooners lost at home as 30.5-point favorites to East Texas A&M. |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma free throw % | 53.1% | That ranked 339th in the opener, despite a free throw rate that ranked 21st. |
| MVSU returning minutes | 0.0% | The Delta Devils' entire roster is new under first-year coach Mike Davis. |
| MVSU adjusted net rank (last season) | 365th | Last of 365 Division I teams at the end of last season. |
| Spread | -38.5 | Unchanged since our feed first saw the game, with the total holding at 148.5. |
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners: quick answers
Who is favored in Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners?
Oklahoma is favored by 40.5 points (Oklahoma -40.5).
What is the over/under for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners?
The total is 152.5 points.
When is Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oklahoma Sooners?
Yes: Miss Valley St Delta Devils opened +38.5 and is now +40.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 152.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).