Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks prediction: Middle Tennessee's shooters test a Kansas defense that walled off the rim
No. 17 Kansas shut down the paint in its opener, so the Blue Raiders' three-heavy attack decides how close a 29.5-point spread gets.
| Spread | Kansas -28.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 157 |
- Kansas should own the paint; Middle Tennessee's route to a respectable margin runs through high-volume threes from Eli Rice and Marcus Whitlock Jr.
- Watch the Blue Raiders' bench gunners against a Kansas perimeter that let Fordham hit 39.4% from three in the opener.
- Kansas moved from -27.25 to -29.5. Its 53.3% free throw shooting in the opener is the quickest way to leak points off a huge margin.
The arc is the only door
Kansas spent its opener closing the lane. Fordham made just 25.0% of its two-point attempts, the second-best mark in Division I after one night of games. Middle Tennessee, a team built to shoot from deep, arrives at Allen Fieldhouse on Friday night to find out whether the Jayhawks guard the three as well.
The early evidence says they might not. Fordham took 47.8% of its shots from three and made 39.4% of them, a defensive mark that ranked 309th. That came against a Fordham side rated 167th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents), not an elite shooting team.
The Blue Raiders took 46.1% of their shots from three against Fisk and made 45.7%. Eli Rice went 5 of 10 off the bench and Marcus Whitlock Jr. went 4 of 9. If Kansas packs the paint again, those two will get looks. Whether they fall in a loud building is the whole game for Middle Tennessee.
Kansas settles its rotation
Bill Self's roster came together late and through the courts. Melvin Council Jr. won a preliminary injunction against the NCAA in late September, a ruling that does not permanently settle his eligibility, and Tre White was cleared for a fifth season. Both started the opener. White scored 22 points on 3 of 5 from three, and Council added seven assists.
The newest change is up front. Trey Kaufman-Renn, made eligible by injunction for a sixth season, is expected to start after averaging 14.2 points at Purdue last season. Christian Reeves, who started against Fordham, is expected to move to the bench.
The depth stands out. Freshman Tyran Stokes scored 15 in his debut, and Leroy Blyden Jr. scored 15 more off the bench after shooting 41% from three at Toledo last season. Kansas also has a reason for urgency: it lost both exhibitions, to Duke and Louisville, by six points each, and Kentucky waits on Nov. 10 in the Champions Classic.
A Blue Raiders team still forming
Nick McDevitt says his roster has nine new players and five returners. Players back from last season account for 24.7% of last season's minutes, so last year's team numbers say little about this group.
Quintero Barnett carried the opener with 24 points. Jahvin Carter, the top returner, ran the offense. Inside, 6-10 JUCO transfer Kaleb Siler started, with 6-11 sophomore Luka Jovanovic behind him, and they will have to deal with Kaufman-Renn, Reeves and Keanu Dawes. The Fisk win showed Middle Tennessee can score in bunches, but it tells little about how this group handles a ranked Big 12 opponent on the road.
Where Kansas can give back points
A 29.5-point spread asks Kansas to stay sharp for 40 minutes, and two habits from the opener cut against that. The Jayhawks turned it over on 22.4% of their possessions, which ranked 296th. They also made just 53.3% of their free throws, 337th nationally.
None of it mattered against Fordham. Kansas won 95-65 and covered as a 21.5-point favorite. The market expects more of the same: the spread has climbed from -27.25 since our feed first saw it, and the total has risen from 150.5 to 153.5. Both teams played fast in their openers, at 76 and 78 possessions, which supports the higher total. Whether Self keeps his starters in during a lopsided second half could matter as much as the threes.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks line movement and odds
| Book | Raiders ML | Jayhawks ML | Raiders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3300 | -10000 | +28.5 (-105) | o156.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +28.5 (-113) | o156.5 (-107) |
| DraftKings | +3500 | -20000 | +28.5 (-108) | o156.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +4000 | -12000 | +29 (-110) | o157 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +28.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 64% of bets, 0% of the money; Kansas Jayhawks: 36% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas Jayhawks -27.5: 67% of bets, 74% of the money; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +27.5: 33% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 48% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 157.5: 52% of bets, 18% of the money.
Key players
- Quintero Barnett (Middle Tennessee): Led the opener with 24 points and a 27.5% usage rate, the highest on the team.
- Eli Rice (Middle Tennessee): Hit 5 of 10 threes against Fisk after shooting 39% from deep at Penn State last season.
- Marcus Whitlock Jr. (Middle Tennessee): Scored 17 on 4 of 9 from three and added three blocks in the opener.
- Jahvin Carter (Middle Tennessee): Had 16 points and seven assists against Fisk after averaging 10.8 points last season.
- Tre White (Kansas): Scored 22 points against Fordham on 3 of 5 shooting from three.
- Tyran Stokes (Kansas): Posted 15 points and seven rebounds in his college debut.
- Leroy Blyden Jr. (Kansas): Scored 15 off the bench after shooting 41% from three at Toledo last season.
- Trey Kaufman-Renn (Kansas): Averaged 14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds at Purdue last season and had nine points in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Kansas opponent 2-point % | 25.0% | Fordham's interior shooting in the opener ranked second in Division I, which pushes Middle Tennessee toward the arc. |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas opponent 3-point % | 39.4% | Ranked 309th after the opener, the crack the Blue Raiders' shooters will look to exploit. |
| Middle Tennessee 3-point attempt rate | 46.1% | Nearly half the Blue Raiders' shots came from three against Fisk. |
| Kansas turnover rate | 22.4% | Ranked 296th; giveaways are one way a big favorite leaks margin. |
| Spread | -29.5 | Kansas has moved up from -27.25 since our feed first recorded the line. |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks: quick answers
Who is favored in Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
Kansas is favored by 28.5 points (Kansas -28.5).
What is the over/under for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
The total is 157 points.
When is Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
Yes: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened +27.5 and is now +28.5, and the total moved from 150.5 to 156.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 64% of bets, 0% of the money; Kansas Jayhawks: 36% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Kansas Jayhawks -27.5: 67% of bets, 74% of the money; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +27.5: 33% of bets, 26% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 157.5: 48% of bets, 82% of the money; Under 157.5: 52% of bets, 18% of the money.