Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores prediction: Jayden Reid's red-hot start runs into Vanderbilt's suffocating defense
Memphis has survived two tight games behind a 29-point-per-game point guard, and now it must score against a Vanderbilt defense that has given up 49 points a night while the Commodores lay 16.5 at home.
Vanderbilt Commodores covered the closing spread (Memphis Tigers +13.5). The game went over the closing total of 161.5.
| Spread | Vanderbilt -14.25 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 161.5 |
- Vanderbilt's defense should set the terms, but Memphis's free-throw volume and Reid's shot-making give the Tigers a path to hang around.
- Jayden Reid, carrying a 35.5% usage rate, against a Vanderbilt defense ranked 6th in points allowed per possession.
- Vanderbilt's line has moved from -16.5 to -14, and the total climbed from 158.5 to 161.0, though both Vanderbilt games have gone under.
Reid against the wall
Memphis is 2-0 because Jayden Reid has been the best player on the floor twice. The Northwestern transfer is averaging 29.0 points and finished 11-of-21 for 32 in the one-point win over VCU. He used 35.5% of Memphis's possessions while on the floor, a load nobody else on the roster comes close to.
Vanderbilt has built its own 2-0 start on defense. The Commodores are allowing 71.0 points per 100 possessions, 6th of 364 teams, after ranking 303rd in defensive efficiency last season. The caveat matters: Bellarmine ranks 280th by adjusted net rating, and Wake Forest is 64th. Memphis has already beaten a top-10 team in Iowa State as a 15.25-point underdog, so this is the first real test of whether the Vanderbilt defense is new or just well scheduled. Tyler Tanner and T.O. Barrett figure into the plan for slowing Reid.
Memphis lives at the line
The Tigers' clearest edge is free throws. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) is 65.1%, 4th nationally, driven by guards who attack the paint. Vanderbilt has been disciplined so far, holding opponents to a 27.0% rate, 70th.
The whistle cuts both ways. Memphis sends opponents to the line at a rate that ranks 339th, and Vanderbilt converts 77.8% of its free throws. If this game turns into a parade to the stripe, the Commodores are the better finishers there.
Where possessions disappear
Vanderbilt forces turnovers on 25.4% of opponent possessions, 41st nationally, and has grabbed 81.7% of available defensive rebounds, 16th. Memphis has protected the ball well, but it cannot afford a night of one-and-done trips against a defense this active.
The Tigers also lean hard on the three. They are shooting 45.2% from deep, 14th, while making just 46.3% of their twos, 296th. Rihards Vavers has hit 7 of his 12 attempts. That kind of shooting rarely holds, and Vanderbilt's opponents are making only 23.4% from three.
New faces, missing pieces
Both rosters are rebuilt. Memphis returns just 11.2% of last season's minutes, so its 13-19 record from last season says little about this group. Vanderbilt returns 25.4%, almost all of it in Tanner, an AP preseason All-American.
Vanderbilt is without five-star freshman Gabe Nesmith after ankle surgery. "He'll be out a couple months. It could be season ending," Byington said. Memphis is without Nemanja Popovic, who is sitting to start the year, though reports differ on how many games. A single listing has Pittsburgh transfer Brandin Cummings out with an ankle injury; Memphis hasn't confirmed that.
Vanderbilt won last season's meeting 77-70 in overtime in Memphis, though the Tigers have won four of the last five meetings.
What the number says
Vanderbilt opened in our feed at -16.5, but the line has moved from -16.5 to -14, toward Memphis, with the moneyline at -1600. The total moved up two and a half points from 158.5 to 161.0, which runs against Vanderbilt's early profile: both of its games went under, and it has allowed just 22.0 first-half points per game, 11th. Memphis's defense points the other way, allowing 43.5 first-half points, 334th.
Both teams are 2-0 against the spread. Vanderbilt plays slower, 263rd in pace, while Memphis sits mid-pack at 161st, so the Commodores will try to keep this a half-court grind.
Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | Commodores ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +675 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +700 | -1250 | +14.5 (-114) | o161.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-108) | o161.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +13.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +800 | -1300 | +13.5 (-105) | o161.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +740 | -1200 | +13.5 (-112) | o161.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +700 | -1300 | +14.5 (-115) | o161.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o161.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 86% of bets, 69% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 14% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -14.5: 27% of bets, 25% of the money; Memphis Tigers +14.5: 73% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 71% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 160.5: 29% of bets, 20% of the money.
Key players
- Jayden Reid (Memphis): Averaging 29.0 points with a 35.5% usage rate after scoring 32 against VCU.
- Rihards Vavers (Memphis): Has made 7 of 12 threes for a 73.5% effective field goal percentage.
- Tylik Weeks (Memphis): The Southern Miss transfer averaged 19.7 points there last season but is shooting 37.5% so far.
- Luke Almodovar (Memphis): Scored 18 with 8 rebounds in the win over Iowa State.
- Tyler Tanner (Vanderbilt): The AP preseason All-American is averaging 18.5 points and 2.5 steals.
- Ace Glass (Vanderbilt): The Washington State transfer hit 4 of 11 threes for 16 points against Wake Forest.
- Chandler Bing (Vanderbilt): Shooting 71.4% from the field while averaging 12.0 points.
- Ant Brown Jr. (Vanderbilt): Scored 14 off the bench against Wake Forest and has made 5 of 12 threes.
Numbers that matter
| Vanderbilt defensive efficiency | 71.0 | Points allowed per 100 possessions, 6th nationally, though against modest competition. |
|---|---|---|
| Memphis free throw rate | 65.1% | Ranks 4th nationally and is the Tigers' best route to points against a set defense. |
| Vanderbilt forced turnover rate | 25.4% | Ranks 41st and threatens a Memphis offense that needs every possession. |
| Memphis returning minutes | 11.2% | So little carries over that last season's Memphis numbers are a weak guide. |
| Spread | -16.5 | Vanderbilt's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it. |
Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores: quick answers
What was the final score of Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Memphis Tigers 81, Vanderbilt Commodores 105 (final). Vanderbilt Commodores covered the closing spread (Memphis Tigers +13.5). The game went over the closing total of 161.5.
Who is favored in Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Vanderbilt is favored by 14.25 points (Vanderbilt -14.25).
What is the over/under for Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
The total is 161.5 points.
When is Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:15 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
Yes: Memphis Tigers opened +15.5 and is now +13.5, and the total moved from 158.5 to 161.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Memphis Tigers vs Vanderbilt Commodores?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Memphis Tigers: 86% of bets, 69% of the money; Vanderbilt Commodores: 14% of bets, 31% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -14.5: 27% of bets, 25% of the money; Memphis Tigers +14.5: 73% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 160.5: 71% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 160.5: 29% of bets, 20% of the money.