Marquette vs Michigan prediction: Michigan's rebuilt champion faces Marquette's ball-hawking guards at Crisler

A champion starting over

Michigan went 37-3 last season and won the national title. Almost none of that team is still in the building. Players on this roster logged just 36.0% of last season's minutes. Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks, and Mike Boynton Jr. is running the program in his first season.

The departures hit the core. Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara and Nimari Burnett are all gone, and five-star freshman guard Brandon McCoy Jr. is out for the season with a torn right ACL suffered in an exhibition in Montenegro. Freshman Joseph Hartman hurt his shoulder. As of Oct. 23, Boynton said it was not season-ending and expected about two weeks, and no newer update has surfaced. Roddy Gayle Jr. was cleared for a fifth season and started the final exhibition.

That exhibition was an 83-66 loss to No. 10 Houston on Oct. 25. Michigan ripped off a 15-1 run to take the lead, then gave up 13 straight points. Boynton framed the loss as a look at the standard Michigan has to reach. The Wolverines open against Oakland on Nov. 2, nine days before this game. Last season's numbers describe a team that no longer exists.

Who protects the rim now

Last season's defense was built at the basket. Opponents made just 43.8% of their twos, second in Division I, and Michigan blocked 16.2% of opponent two-point tries, third nationally. Mara alone blocked 2.5 shots a game.

The new answer starts with Cincinnati transfer Moustapha Thiam, who blocked 1.6 shots a game last season. He had a leg scare in August, played the Houston exhibition and picked up two early fouls. If foul trouble pulls him off the floor, Michigan's interior defense looks far more ordinary. Tennessee transfer J.P. Estrella adds scoring inside but blocked far fewer shots.

Marquette will test that. Louisville transfer Sananda Fru shot 75.3% from the field last season, nearly all of it around the rim.

Marquette's hands in the passing lanes

Marquette went 12-20 last season, but it could take the ball away. Its steal rate (steals per opponent possession) was 13.2%, 11th in the country. James averaged 2.0 steals and is back, along with Adrien Stevens.

Michigan was ordinary with the ball even as a champion. Its turnover rate of 16.6% ranked 165th. Cadeau, who averaged 5.8 assists last season, is the returning hub, but he will be passing to teammates he has played with for only a few months. Columbia transfer Kenny Noland, who averaged 17.1 points last season, takes some of the creation load. Live-ball turnovers are Marquette's clearest path to an upset.

The glass could swing it back

What Marquette gains on steals, it has given away on the boards. Its defensive rebound rate of 65.3% ranked 343rd of 365 last season. Michigan grabbed 34.7% of its own misses, 63rd nationally.

The caveat is that Michigan's best rebounders left. Thiam pulled down 7.1 rebounds a game at Cincinnati, and LSU transfer Jalen Reed adds size. Michigan's lineup is slightly taller on average, so second chances should still favor the home team.

New scorers in blue and gold

Shaka Smart, 110-61 at Marquette and coming off his first season there without an NCAA Tournament bid, reloaded through the portal. Nolan Minessale averaged 19.8 points at St. Thomas and is expected to start alongside Fru, James, Royce Parham and Stevens. Liberty transfer Colin Porter shot 91.1% at the line, which matters for a team that made 67.5% of its free throws last season, 336th nationally.

Shooting is the open question. Marquette made 31.8% of its threes last season, 305th. Stevens is the best returning option from deep.

What to watch - Thiam's foul count in the first half - Marquette's steals against Cadeau and Noland - Michigan's offensive rebounds against a weak Marquette back line - Whether Minessale's scoring carries over to Big East-level size