Manhattan Jaspers vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction: Momcilovic's jumper headlines Kentucky's rebuild against a nearly new Manhattan

New shooters, familiar weakness

Kentucky's season opener on Nov. 3 at Rupp Arena is the first look at Mark Pope's rebuilt roster, and the sharpest new weapon is Milan Momcilovic. At Iowa State last season he made 48.4% of his threes on 281 attempts, a volume-and-accuracy pairing few players anywhere matched.

Manhattan's defense last season gave shooters room. Opponents hit 36.6% from three, 345th of 365 Division I teams. That roster has largely turned over, so the number describes a system more than these players, but John Gallagher's Jaspers will need to show they can close out before anyone assumes otherwise.

Momcilovic isn't alone. Justin McBride shot 40% from deep at James Madison while scoring 15.3 points per game, and Kam Williams hit 35.9% for Kentucky last season if he's healthy.

Manhattan starts from scratch

Only 7.4% of Manhattan's minutes from last season's 12-20 team return. Gone are four of its biggest contributors, led by Jaden Winston at 15.3 points per game. The most experienced holdover, guard Quron Elliott, averaged 3.5 points in 11.6 minutes a night.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. Manhattan's final adjusted net efficiency last season (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents) was -17.7, 330th nationally, but this is effectively a new team.

The arrivals carry the load. Ben Tweedy started every game at Colgate and shot 38.5% from three. Josiah Sabino, from Niagara, made 90.9% of his free throws. Gallagher, in his third season, also adds several freshmen whose roles haven't been reported.

Size and the glass

Kentucky has a clear size edge. Its minutes-weighted average height is 79.8 inches, against 76.0 for Manhattan. Every Manhattan transfer and returner in the packet is listed as a guard.

Rebounding was Manhattan's worst trait last season. The Jaspers grabbed 63.7% of opponents' misses, 360th of 365. Center Malachi Moreno is the anchor Kentucky brings back: he averaged 6.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks last season while shooting 58.2% from the field. With a guard-heavy Manhattan lineup, second chances and rim protection are where Kentucky's size should show up early.

Kentucky's crowded injury list

Kentucky's health is the real unknown, and the newest updates date to Sept. 28 media day.

• Jerone Morton (knee) hurt himself in practice and was set to be re-evaluated in several weeks; no newer update had surfaced.
• Kam Williams (foot) was on target to return for the opener after a second procedure.
• Momcilovic (finger, shooting hand) was expected to be cleared to practice without a splint the following week; no later word.
• Trent Noah (hamstring) was expected to miss the preseason, possibly into exhibitions.
• Franck Kepnang was limited in practice after earlier leg injuries.

No Manhattan injury news has been reported.

Who runs the offense

Kentucky's backcourt is new too. Alex Wilkins averaged 17.8 points at Furman with a 33.8% usage rate, meaning a third of his team's possessions ended with him. Zoom Diallo added 15.7 points at Washington. Fitting those two high-usage guards alongside Momcilovic and McBride is Pope's early puzzle, and an opener against a rebuilding opponent is the first chance to see how the shots get shared.