Macalester vs St. Thomas-Minnesota prediction: St. Thomas rebuilds its offense around Carter Bjerke against Macalester
The Tommies return little more than a fifth of last season's scoring, so a Division III exhibition opponent becomes an early look at who carries the new rotation.
- St. Thomas should control a game that counts for the Tommies and is an exhibition for Macalester. The real question is who scores.
- Watch Carter Bjerke's volume: he hit 44.9% from three last season but was a complementary piece, not the focal point.
- No line has posted. Any number will rest on a roster returning just 21.6% of last season's points.
A new cast in Saint Paul
St. Thomas went 24-10 last season and ranked 32nd of 365 in net efficiency, points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions. Very little of that team is still here. The Tommies return 28.4% of last season's minutes and 21.6% of its points. Nolan Minessale (19.8 points per game) left for Marquette, and Nick Janowski (16.1) left for Davidson. Isaiah Johnson-Arigu and Ben Oosterbaan are gone too.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. The Tommies posted a 58.8% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times), 7th nationally, and made 62.8% of their twos, 1st in the country. Much of that shot-making walked out the door. Johnny Tauer, beginning his 16th year, has to rebuild the offense from the players who remain.
Who carries the load
Carter Bjerke and Austin Herro are the returning starters. Bjerke made 79 threes at a 44.9% clip last season while using a modest 16.2% of possessions. Herro was the connector, averaging 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals.
The newcomers fill out the rotation. Caden Wilkins shot 40.3% from three at Green Bay last season. The incoming class also includes Brogan Madson from Sioux Falls, two junior college players and freshman Jojo Mitchell. Jeremy Lorenz, a DePaul transfer, suffered a season-ending hip injury last season with a chance at a medical redshirt, and St. Thomas hasn't announced his status.
Two habits from last season are worth tracking. St. Thomas ranked 358th in offensive rebound rate and 325th in free-throw shooting at 68.0%. A new roster could change both.
The setting
The Tommies dominated this rivalry in their MIAC days, going 39-4 through 2020 and winning the last 10 meetings. This is the first matchup since Jan. 22, 2020. It comes five days after St. Thomas opens at Minnesota on Nov. 6. Macalester, under Rich Glesmann, brings seven newcomers and opens its own season Nov. 7 against Wartburg. Tip is set for 7 p.m. CT on Nov. 11.
Key players
- Carter Bjerke (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Shot 44.9% from three on 176 attempts last season, with a 126.5 offensive rating.
- Austin Herro (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Averaged 3.5 assists and 1.7 steals in 23.9 minutes last season.
- Caden Wilkins (St. Thomas-Minnesota): Made 48 threes at 40.3% for Green Bay last season.
Numbers that matter
| Returning points | 21.6% | St. Thomas lost nearly all of its scoring, including Minessale and Janowski. |
|---|---|---|
| Bjerke from three | 44.9% | The most reliable returning shooter now likely takes on a bigger role. |
| Last season's 2-point % | 62.8% | Ranked 1st nationally, but largely produced by departed players. |
| Series record | 39-4 | St. Thomas's all-time edge over Macalester through 2020. |
Macalester vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: quick answers
When is Macalester vs St. Thomas-Minnesota?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.