Loyola (MD) Greyhounds vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers prediction: Mount St. Mary's ball pressure tests a rebuilt Loyola in the Catholic Clash

Two programs starting over

The oldest rivalry either school plays gets its 180th edition Friday night, and it arrives with almost nobody familiar on the floor. The Mountaineers lead the series 102-77 and have won three of the past four, including an 81-73 win on Dec. 13, 2025. Very few of the players from that night are back.

Loyola returns 31.9% of last season's minutes. Mount returns 32.5%. Both teams lost their best players, and both opened with a lopsided road loss on Nov. 2: Loyola fell 80-58 at Georgetown, and Mount was routed 97-52 at Xavier. Last season's team numbers are a weak guide here, so the opening-night film and the returning core matter more than usual.

This is also Mount's home opener at Knott Arena, billed as a white-out. Each team had four days to regroup. Coaches picked Mount to finish eighth in the Metro.

Steals against a shaky handle

The clearest edge in the opener belongs to Mount's defense. Even while Xavier was running away, the Mountaineers forced turnovers at a 21.2% rate (opponent turnovers per 100 possessions), 128th nationally, and piled up 11 steals. Anthony Arrington Jr. had four of them in 24 minutes.

Loyola's guards gave the ball away at a 21.2% clip at Georgetown, 269th in the country. That is a sharp drop from last season, when Loyola's turnover rate ranked 107th, but the handlers who earned that number are gone. The Greyhounds also forced almost nothing themselves, with a steal rate that ranked 355th of 360.

Mount carries its own turnover problem. Its 23.8% rate against Xavier ranked 317th, and last season's 22.5% ranked 362nd of 365. The team that loses fewer possessions likely wins this game.

Mount's jump shot went missing

The Mountaineers shot 29.2% from the field at Xavier and 11.5% from three, 358th nationally. Their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) was 31.5%.

Much of that came through Redd Thompson Jr., the Longwood transfer who used 36.1% of Mount's possessions while going 1-of-14, including 0-of-7 from deep. He averaged 10.3 points at Longwood last season, so a bounce-back is reasonable, but Mount needs more than one shooter to wake up.

Abdou Khadre Kébé, a preseason first-team All-Metro pick, led Mount with 13 points, and Drake transfer Wilguens Jr. Exacte added 12 points and seven rebounds. Loyola's defense allowed 59.5% on twos at Georgetown, 298th, so Kébé and Exacte attacking inside may be the more reliable route.

Where Loyola can steal points

Loyola's offense ran on ball movement and threes in the opener. The Greyhounds assisted on 70.8% of their made baskets, 27th nationally, with Carter Berg-McLean handing out seven assists, and they hit 35.7% from three. Leo Ricketts, a junior who made 115 threes at Citrus College last season, led them with 10 points on 2-of-5 shooting from deep.

The weakness was getting to the line. Loyola's free throw rate (free throws per field goal attempt) was 3.2%, dead last of 360. Against a team that fights for steals, attacking the rim and drawing fouls is an obvious counter.

The glass is another opening. Mount grabbed only 52.5% of available defensive rebounds at Xavier, 348th. Sebastien Emenalo pulled down eight boards for Loyola in the opener, though he also needed 13 shots to score seven points.

What the number says

Mount is favored by 5.5, with the total at 150.5. Neither number has moved since our feed first recorded it, and the moneylines sit at -245 and +205. Both openers went under, Loyola's against a 153 total and Mount's against 158.5.

The first halves were grim for both: Loyola trailed 44-20 at Georgetown, and Mount trailed 51-16 at Xavier. A total in the 150s assumes both offenses look much better against each other than they did on opening night. Loyola covered a 26.5-point spread at Georgetown, while Mount failed to cover the same number at Xavier, which hints the Greyhounds handled their first test a little better.