Loyola Chicago vs Air Force prediction: Air Force brings back everyone; Loyola Chicago brings back almost no one

Continuity against a clean slate

Air Force went 3-29 last season and finished 365th of 365 in offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions). Almost all of that team is back. Players on this season's roster logged 98.3% of last season's minutes, and the Falcons return all five starters. The change is on the bench: Joe Crispin is a first-year head coach.

Loyola Chicago is the opposite case. The Ramblers went 9-24, and only 14.6% of last season's minutes return. Drew Valentine, in his sixth season, counts 12 new players. Xavier Amos and Nic Anderson are the only holdovers. That makes Loyola's 2025-26 team numbers a weak guide. Air Force's numbers, for better and mostly worse, describe largely the same group that will take the floor at Clune Arena.

Where Loyola's points come from

Last season's Ramblers lived behind the arc. They took 47.7% of their shots from three, 28th most in the country, but made just 31.7%. Air Force's defense gave up 37.6% from deep, 359th nationally, which looks like an opening.

The catch is who left. Kayde Dotson, who hit 38% from three, is now at UC San Diego. The newcomers don't replace that shooting cleanly. Donald Hand Jr. made 22.6% of his threes at Boston College, while Ryan Agarwal hit 34.9% at Stanford.

The most efficient import works inside. Nessah averaged 15.5 points at Cleveland State with a 57.0 effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times). Against a Falcons defense that let opponents shoot 56.3% on twos, he may be Loyola's most reliable source of offense.

Air Force's ball security problem

The Falcons' offense broke down well before the shot. Their turnover rate of 22.0 per 100 possessions ranked 358th last season, and they rarely got second chances, with an offensive rebound rate that ranked 362nd.

Kam Sanders, now a sophomore, runs the show after averaging 12.5 points and 3.8 assists. Lucas Hobin is the volume shooter, with 70 made threes at 31.8%. If this one stays close late, Air Force's free-throw shooting looms: the Falcons made 64.1% last season, last in Division I.

Loyola's old roster rarely forced mistakes, but that was a different set of players. Whether this group can pressure a turnover-prone backcourt is one of the early unknowns.

Unsettled pieces and new faces

Several Loyola availability questions remain open. Malick Diallo, a TCU transfer, was recovering from a knee injury, and the last report available, which is undated, said he was expected to be fully cleared after Labor Day. Hand was also described as coming back from an offseason knee injury in an undated report. Jayden Dawson was still waiting on a fifth-season eligibility ruling as of Oct. 28. Air Force listed no injuries as of Oct. 30.

The Ramblers also lost their rim protection. Miles Rubin, who averaged 2.2 blocks, transferred to Tennessee. Valentine held no 5-on-5 work until mid-September, so chemistry is still forming. Guillaume Grotzinger, from France's Elite 2, is expected to take major point guard minutes.

Both teams play their openers on Nov. 2, Loyola against The Citadel and Air Force at Wright State. Those results will be the first real evidence for either roster. Loyola's trip to Air Force opens a five-day road-and-home stretch that includes a Nov. 14 game against Colorado State. This is the first meeting since 1981 and only the eighth ever. Preseason voters were not kind to either team: Loyola was picked 11th in the Atlantic 10, and Air Force was picked last in the Mountain West.