Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks prediction: Saint Joseph's opens Donahue's second year against Longwood's steal-hungry guards
Both rosters were rebuilt this offseason, and the first question for the new Hawks backcourt is whether it can keep the ball against a Longwood defense built to take it away.
| Spread | Saint Joseph's -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- A rebuilt Saint Joseph's opens at Hagan Arena as the steadier half-court team; Longwood needs turnovers to keep the margin close.
- Longwood's ball pressure, led by transfer MJ Williams, against a Hawks backcourt that lost Derek Simpson's playmaking.
- Saint Joseph's is favored by 9.5 with the total at 149.5, both unchanged since our feed first saw the game.
The ball-security test
Saint Joseph's plays its first game of the season Wednesday night, and it does so against a defense that lives on live-ball mistakes. Last season Longwood forced turnovers on 21.2 of every 100 opponent possessions, 13th nationally, and its steal rate ranked 26th. The Lancers' opener against Pfeiffer only reinforced that profile: they forced turnovers at a 30.3 rate in a 123-67 rout, though one game against that opponent says little about what happens against an Atlantic 10 team.
The Hawks have to answer that pressure without the guard who ran their offense. Derek Simpson, who averaged 5.2 assists last season, is gone, and so is Dasear Haskins. Saint Joseph's turnover rate last season ranked 199th, which was middle of the pack.
The pressure cuts both ways. Longwood gave the ball away on 19.9 of every 100 possessions last season, 341st nationally, while the Hawks barely forced turnovers at all (315th). If neither team turns the other over, Saint Joseph's half-court defense should decide the game.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like it did last season, which makes last season's numbers a rough guide. Longwood returns 26.7% of its minutes, and a Sept. 4 report counted ten new arrivals plus two new assistants on Ronnie Thomas' staff in his second year. The Lancers lost several of their top scorers, including Elijah Tucker and Jacoi Hutchinson.
The headliner among the newcomers is MJ Williams, a preseason all-conference second-team pick who averaged 10.0 points and 4.2 assists at Eastern Kentucky. He had 12 points, five assists and three steals in the opener. Jaylen Benard led that game with 14 points and 10 rebounds.
Saint Joseph's returns 36.7% of its minutes. The Hawks went 24-12 in Steve Donahue's first season, and most of what's left runs through Jaiden Glover-Toscano, who averaged 15.7 points last season and shot 34.6% from three. Maine transfer Logan Carey already knows this opponent: he scored 13 points against Longwood last Nov. 29.
The paint and the whistle
Defense carried Saint Joseph's last season. Opponents posted a 47.2% effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times), 29th nationally. The Hawks also rarely sent anyone to the line: their opponent free throw rate ranked 20th.
That discipline matters against a Longwood team that drew free throws at the 45th-highest rate last season. Most of that interior scoring left with Tucker and Johan Nziemi, though. The Hawks have their own hole to fill at the rim after losing center Justice Ajogbor and his 2.1 blocks per game. Davidson transfer Sean Logan, who blocked 2.4 shots per game last season in limited minutes, is the likeliest replacement. Longwood's minutes-weighted lineup is also slightly taller, 77.2 inches to 76.3.
What the number says
Saint Joseph's is a 9.5-point favorite, and neither the spread nor the 149.5 total has moved since our feed first recorded the game Wednesday morning. The Hawks' moneyline sits at -465.
The total is where Longwood's opener could mislead. The Lancers played at 89 possessions per 40 minutes against Pfeiffer, but last season both teams played at nearly the same moderate tempo, 67.8 for Longwood and 68 for Saint Joseph's. Expect Hagan Arena to drag this toward the Hawks' pace. Saint Joseph's also shot just 30.8% from three last season while taking threes at the 74th-highest rate, so a cold Hawks night from outside is the clearest path to Longwood keeping it close.
This is the first meeting between the programs, Longwood's first road game of the season and its first game against an Atlantic 10 opponent since 2022.
Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks line movement and odds
| Book | Lancers ML | Hawks ML | Lancers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +320 | -425 | — | o149.5 (-105) |
| BetRivers | +295 | -420 | +8.5 (-117) | o149.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +320 | -410 | +9.5 (-108) | o149.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +340 | -450 | +10.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +340 | -450 | +9.5 (-110) | o149 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +340 | -430 | +8.5 (-102) | o149.5 (-106) |
| Caesars | — | — | +9.5 (-110) | o149.5 (-110) |
Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks stats (this season)
| Stat | Longwood Lancers | Saint Joseph's Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Adjusted offensive efficiency | 103.1 (278th of 365) | 107.5 (201st of 365) |
| Adjusted defensive efficiency | 112.3 (241st of 365) | 103.4 (72nd of 365) |
| Adjusted net efficiency | -9.1 (265th of 365) | 4.1 (125th of 365) |
Key players
- Jaiden Glover-Toscano (Saint Joseph's): He averaged 15.7 points last season and attempted 260 threes, making him the Hawks' clear first option.
- Logan Carey (Saint Joseph's): He scored 13 points against Longwood for Maine last Nov. 29 and shot 35.6% from three last season.
- Sean Logan (Saint Joseph's): He blocked 2.4 shots per game at Davidson last season, the obvious candidate to replace Justice Ajogbor at the rim.
- MJ Williams (Longwood): He averaged 10.0 points and 4.2 assists at Eastern Kentucky last season and added three steals in the opener.
- Jaylen Benard (Longwood): He led the opener with 14 points and 10 rebounds after averaging 7.3 points off the bench last season.
- Alphonzo Billups III (Longwood): Longwood's top returner averaged 8.1 points last season and made 41 threes.
Numbers that matter
| Longwood forced turnover rate, last season | 21.2 | Ranked 13th nationally, and it's the main weapon against a Hawks backcourt without Derek Simpson. |
|---|---|---|
| Longwood turnover rate, last season | 19.9 | Ranked 341st, so the Lancers' pressure has often been offset by their own giveaways. |
| Saint Joseph's opponent eFG%, last season | 47.2% | A 29th-ranked shooting defense was the foundation of a 24-12 season. |
| Longwood returning minutes | 26.7% | Ten newcomers make last season's Lancers numbers a loose guide. |
| Spread | -9.5 | Saint Joseph's is favored by 9.5, unchanged since our feed first saw the line. |
Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks: quick answers
Who is favored in Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Saint Joseph's is favored by 9.5 points (Saint Joseph's -9.5).
What is the over/under for Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks played?
Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena, Philadelphia, PA.
Has the line moved for Longwood Lancers vs Saint Joseph's Hawks?
Yes: Longwood Lancers opened +8.5 and is now +9.5, and the total moved from 151.5 to 149.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).