Lipscomb vs Iowa prediction: Iowa begins life after Bennett Stirtz against Lipscomb's three-point barrage

The hole Stirtz left

Iowa's run to its first Elite Eight in 39 years ran through Bennett Stirtz. He played 37.8 minutes a night last season and used 26.9% of Iowa's possessions while he was on the floor. Now he's in the NBA, and the Nov. 3 opener at Carver-Hawkeye Arena is the first look at Ben McCollum's second Iowa team without him.

The Hawkeyes bring back 56.4% of last season's minutes but only 45.4% of last season's points. McCollum plans to run the point by committee with Kael Combs, Illinois State transfer Ty'Reek Coleman and Peyton McCollum. Coleman is the scorer of the group: he averaged 10.0 points and shot 41.6% from three at Illinois State last season. Peyton McCollum broke bones in both feet, the left in January and the right after an April scrimmage, and as of Oct. 13 he had been playing at a high level.

The baseline still favors Iowa heavily. Iowa finished last season with an adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents) of 25.3, while Lipscomb sat at -2.6. Preseason projections are more cautious about the new-look Hawkeyes, with KenPom placing them 43rd and Bart Torvik 45th.

A pace tug-of-war

No team in Division I played slower than Iowa last season: 60.8 possessions per 40 minutes, 365th of 365. Lipscomb went the other way at 70.8, 44th nationally.

That gap matters more than usual because Iowa's points-allowed numbers flattered its defense. The Hawkeyes gave up 66.3 points per game, 20th in the country, largely because opponents got so few trips. Expect McCollum to slow Lipscomb down and make it execute in the half court, where a guard-by-committee group either shows it can manage a game or doesn't.

Lipscomb lives beyond the arc

Lipscomb took 48.2% of its shots from three last season, 26th nationally, and made 36.2% of them, 53rd. That is the Bisons' path to hanging around: enough made threes to offset Iowa's efficiency on the other end. Iowa's perimeter defense was middling, holding opponents to 33.2% from deep, 150th.

What Lipscomb didn't do was get to the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) was 25.7%, 356th of 365. That blunts one of Iowa's real weaknesses, since the Hawkeyes fouled a lot and ranked 289th in opponent free throw rate. Lipscomb will likely need to win this game with jumpers rather than whistles.

Kevin Carroll, who came from Trevecca Nazarene, was in his first season at Lipscomb last winter. Little is known about the Bisons' offseason roster changes, so last season's profile is a rougher guide for them than usual.

Where Iowa wins possessions

Iowa's defense earned its keep by taking the ball away. The Hawkeyes forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions, 19th in the country. Lipscomb was ordinary at protecting the ball, with a turnover rate of 15.9%, 126th. Live-ball steals against a team that wants to run would let Iowa score before its new half-court offense has to.

Lipscomb also rarely chased its own misses, ranking 309th with a 27.0% offensive rebound rate. That should help Saint Mary's transfer Andrew McKeever, who averaged 9.1 rebounds last season, settle in on the defensive glass. If the Bisons get one shot per trip at Iowa's tempo, their margin for error from three gets very thin.