James Madison Dukes vs Kentucky Wildcats prediction: Kentucky's turnover problem faces the one opponent unlikely to punish it

Sloppy, but against whom

Kentucky beat Manhattan 85-57 on Nov. 3 and has spent the days since talking about its 14 turnovers. Pope said he wants cleaner play against JMU, and the opener's numbers back up his irritation: the Wildcats gave it away on 21.2% of their possessions, 269th of 360 teams.

The catch is that JMU is poorly built to make Kentucky pay. The Dukes forced turnovers on just 14.7% of Miami (Ohio)'s possessions, 293rd nationally, and last season's team was even more passive at 12.9%, which ranked 361st of 365. That was a different roster, but nothing in the opener suggests a new identity. If Kentucky's ball security is the flaw, this is a forgiving night to work on it, and that matters for a big spread: fewer giveaways means more shots for the better shooting team.

The glass tilts hard

The cleaner edge for Kentucky is on the offensive boards. The Wildcats grabbed 50.0% of their own misses against Manhattan, 23rd in the country. JMU's defense let Miami (Ohio) keep plenty of its misses, a 63.9% defensive rebound rate that ranks 287th.

Size explains a lot of it. Weighted by minutes, Kentucky's lineup averages 80.2 inches against JMU's 77.2. Malachi Moreno, one of the few Wildcats back from last season, pulled down 10 rebounds in 20 minutes in the opener. Second chances are how a heavy favorite pulls away even on a night its jumpers aren't falling.

JMU lives by the three

The Dukes' path to keeping this respectable runs almost entirely through the arc. Nearly half their shots came from deep in the opener, a 3-point attempt rate of 48.6% (60th), and they made 41.2% of them. Inside the arc they hit only 36.1% of their twos, 340th nationally. That is a fragile formula against a Kentucky defense that held Manhattan to 26.9% from three.

Kentucky can shoot too. Milan Momcilovic, the Iowa State transfer, opened with 24 points on 6-of-9 from deep, and he made 48.4% of his threes last season. A shootout from range favors the side with the better shooter and the extra possessions from rebounding.

Homecomings on both benches

This is the first meeting between the programs, and it is personal on both sides. JMU coach Preston Spradlin, a Pikeville, Ky., native, spent 2009-14 on Kentucky's staff. Justin McBride, an all-conference player at James Madison who averaged 15.3 points there last season, now plays for Kentucky.

The Dukes are close to a brand-new team: 13 newcomers, and only 14.8% of last season's minutes return. Paul Jones III, one of the few holdovers, led them with 14 points off the bench against Miami (Ohio), while K.J. Windham used a third of the possessions he was on the floor for and shot 4-of-11. They lost that home opener 86-77 as a slight favorite.

Kentucky's own availability is unsettled. Kam Williams missed the opener after a second foot surgery; one report expects him back against JMU, but his status had not been confirmed. Trent Noah was listed week-to-week with a hamstring issue as of Oct. 22, and guard Jerone Morton remained sidelined with a knee injury as of Oct. 9.

Where the number sits

The market has moved toward Kentucky, from -24 to -25.5, with the total ticking up from 156 to 157.25. Last season's final adjusted ratings had Kentucky 29th and JMU 213th in net efficiency, but both rosters have turned over so heavily that those numbers are a loose guide.

Tempo is the question for the total. Kentucky played slowly in its opener, ranking 317th in pace, while JMU ran at a quicker clip that ranked 104th. Kentucky's opener went under and JMU's went over. Kentucky already failed to cover once as a huge favorite, and tonight's margin likely turns on whether the Dukes' threes keep falling.