Jacksonville State vs Houston prediction: Houston's rebuilt Cougars test their new pieces against an all-new Jacksonville State

Eight new faces, same Houston blueprint

Kelvin Sampson enters this season with a heavily rebuilt roster. Houston returns 23.4% of last season's minutes after losing Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan, Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr., the core of a team that went 30-7. The summer prospectus counted eight new faces on the roster.

The replacements arrive with résumés. Dedan Thomas Jr. is expected to take over at point guard after averaging 15.1 points and 6.4 assists in 16 games at LSU. Delrecco Gillespie projects as the starting center after a 17.7-point, 11.2-rebound season at Kent State. Corey Hadnot II, who scored 20.4 a game at Purdue Fort Wayne, is described as a depth piece here.

The continuity comes from Joseph Tugler, the returning forward who started 36 games last season and blocked 1.5 shots a night. He anchors a defense that finished last season fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). The Cougars sit No. 10 in the AP poll.

Jacksonville State starts from zero

The Gamecocks return 0.0% of last season's minutes. That makes last season's 15-17 record, and a defense that ranked 53rd in raw efficiency, a weak guide to the team taking the floor in Houston. Ray Harper, a tenth-year head coach last season, is rebuilding the whole rotation, and the Conference USA preseason poll slotted Jax State seventh.

The new backcourt comes from mid-major and high-major benches alike. Jordan Stiemke started 28 games at Loyola Maryland and made 55 threes. Chris Lockett Jr. arrives from Jacksonville with a strong 84.6% free throw mark. Naas Cunningham and Brandon Walker bring high-major experience from UNLV and Mississippi State, but both played limited minutes. None of the newcomers carried a scoring load close to that of departed guard Mostapha El Moutaouakkil, who averaged 19.5 points last season.

Possessions are Houston's currency

Whoever wears the jerseys, Houston's identity has been winning the possession battle. Last season the Cougars turned it over on just 12.8% of possessions, second-best in Division I, while forcing turnovers at a rate that ranked 24th. They also grabbed 35.6% of their own misses, 43rd nationally.

That formula travels with the system more than with any one player, and it is the toughest test for a Jacksonville State backcourt playing together for the first time. Lockett and Stiemke both shot under 39% from the field last season, so empty trips will be costly against a defense that allowed the 15th-lowest effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure where threes count 1.5 times).

Tempo adds to it. Houston's 315th-ranked pace last season keeps the game short, and fewer possessions leave an underdog fewer chances to steal momentum with a hot shooting stretch.

A home stop between trips

The schedule frames this as a tune-up between bigger dates. Houston plays California in the Caesars Lake Tahoe Classic on Nov. 8, returns home for this one, then heads into the Player's Era event with three games from Nov. 17-19, starting with Rutgers. Sampson will want rotations settled before that stretch, which means extended run for the newcomers here.

We found no injury information for either side heading into the season.

What to watch - Thomas' assist-to-turnover balance in his first home game running the offense Whether Gillespie and Tugler control the glass against a Gamecocks frontcourt that is entirely new - How quickly Jacksonville State's transfers settle into Harper's half-court sets