Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams prediction: Iona's loose handle heads into Fordham's grabbing hands at Rose Hill
Fordham is favored by double digits at home, and Iona's struggle to keep the ball is the clearest reason the number could hold or grow.
Iona Gaels covered the closing spread (Iona Gaels +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 141.5.
| Spread | Fordham -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 141.5 |
- Fordham's pressure should create extra possessions against a turnover-prone Iona team that plays slow and rarely gets to the foul line.
- Iona's guards, led by Kevon Vanderhorst, against a Fordham defense whose steal rate ranks 25th nationally.
- Fordham is -11.5, down from -12.5 when the line first appeared. Iona's 24.6% turnover rate bears on that margin most.
Handle the pressure or else
Fordham hosts Iona for the first time since 2006, and the Rams get a Gaels team that still can't hold on to the ball. Iona is giving it away on 24.6% of its possessions, 346th in Division I. That number is the gap between a competitive game and a long night in the Bronx.
Fordham is built to take advantage. The Rams force turnovers on 22.8% of opponent possessions, 80th nationally, and they do it with active hands: their steal rate (steals per opponent possession) ranks 25th. Rikus Schulte leads the way, averaging 3.0 steals from the frontcourt.
Three games is a thin base for any team's numbers. Still, the pattern fits what Iona showed Sunday at St. John's, where it trailed 54-23 at halftime against a team with real pressure in its defense.
An open lane Iona rarely uses
Fordham's weakness is inside. Opponents are making 62.1% of their two-point shots against the Rams, 334th nationally, and getting to the line often: Fordham's opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per field goal attempt) ranks 295th.
Kansas did much of that damage in a 95-65 rout, so those figures carry an asterisk. Iona is also poorly built to exploit them. The Gaels' own free throw rate ranks 348th, and they take 43.9% of their shots from three. If Iona keeps firing from outside, Fordham's soft interior may never be tested. The Gaels' best chance at points in the paint comes off the glass, where Fordham has given up plenty of second chances so far.
Two rebuilt rosters, one steadier core
Both head coaches are in their second seasons: Dan Geriot at Iona and Mike Magpayo at Fordham. Both reshaped their rosters, but Iona's rebuild runs deeper. Players back from last season logged only 27.4% of the Gaels' minutes, so last year's Iona numbers say little about this group.
Drexel transfer Kevon Vanderhorst has carried the load, scoring 27 in his debut against Vermont. His scoring fell in each game after that. Freshman Ore Odutayo was a bright spot at St. John's, going 4-for-5 from the field off the bench.
Fordham brings back nearly half its minutes, including Schulte and Akira Jacobs from a defense that ranked 21st in efficiency last season. The new scoring comes from Stephen F. Austin transfer Lateef Patrick Jr., who averages 17.5 points off the bench. The concern is UAlbany transfer Amir Lindsey. He runs the offense at 6.5 assists a game but is shooting 23.8% from the field.
Tempo and the number
The two teams want different games. Iona plays at 66.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 320th nationally, while Fordham has pushed the pace early. Iona also enters on two days' rest after the trip to St. John's. Fordham has had five days since beating Stonehill.
The market has drifted toward Iona. Fordham opened at -12.5 and sits at -11.5, and the total has dropped from 142.5 to 139.5. Fordham hasn't covered yet this season. It beat Stonehill by 20 but fell short of a 20.25-point spread, and both of its games went over. Iona's wins over Vermont and NJIT both stayed under.
Iona won last season's meeting 76-71 at home. Fordham, picked seventh in the A-10 preseason poll, gets this one on its own floor.
Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams line movement and odds
| Book | Gaels ML | Rams ML | Gaels spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +510 | -835 | +11.5 (-112) | o141.5 (-108) |
| DraftKings | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-108) | o141.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +550 | -900 | +11.5 (-115) | o142.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +530 | -780 | +11.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +500 | -750 | +11.5 (-110) | o141.5 (-105) |
| Caesars | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
Where the money is on Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams
On the Kalshi moneyline: Iona Gaels: 60% of bets, 87% of the money; Fordham Rams: 40% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Fordham Rams -12.5: 24% of bets, 37% of the money; Iona Gaels +12.5: 76% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 140.5: 60% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 140.5: 40% of bets, 23% of the money.
Key players
- Kevon Vanderhorst (Iona): Leads Iona at 14.0 points per game with a 63.3% effective field goal rate, though he scored just 5 at St. John's.
- Kosy Akametu (Iona): Carries the team's highest usage rate at 25.8% while averaging 10.7 points.
- Ore Odutayo (Iona): Has a 137.2 offensive rating and scored 12 on 4-of-5 shooting at St. John's.
- Lateef Patrick Jr. (Fordham): Averages 17.5 points off the bench with a team-high 30.3% usage rate.
- Rikus Schulte (Fordham): Averages 8.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals, the engine of Fordham's pressure.
- Amir Lindsey (Fordham): Dishes 6.5 assists a game but is shooting 23.8% from the field.
- Akira Jacobs (Fordham): Has made 5 of 7 threes in two games for a 95% effective field goal rate.
Numbers that matter
| Iona turnover rate | 24.6% | Ranks 346th in Division I, a major liability against an aggressive defense. |
|---|---|---|
| Fordham steal rate | 16.6% | Ranks 25th nationally and gives Fordham a direct way to punish Iona's ball security. |
| Fordham opponent 2-point % | 62.1% | Ranks 334th, an interior weakness that Iona's three-heavy, low-foul-drawing offense may not test. |
| Spread | -11.5 | Fordham's line has moved a point toward Iona since it first appeared at -12.5. |
| Iona pace | 66.2 | Possessions per 40 minutes, 320th nationally, as Iona tries to slow the game down. |
Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams: quick answers
What was the final score of Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
Iona Gaels 72, Fordham Rams 78 (final). Iona Gaels covered the closing spread (Iona Gaels +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 141.5.
Who is favored in Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
Fordham is favored by 11.5 points (Fordham -11.5).
What is the over/under for Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
The total is 141.5 points.
When is Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
No: Iona Gaels has stayed at +11.5, and the total moved from 143.5 to 141.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Iona Gaels vs Fordham Rams?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Iona Gaels: 60% of bets, 87% of the money; Fordham Rams: 40% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Fordham Rams -12.5: 24% of bets, 37% of the money; Iona Gaels +12.5: 76% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 140.5: 60% of bets, 77% of the money; Under 140.5: 40% of bets, 23% of the money.