Incarnate Word vs UC Davis prediction: Incarnate Word's rebuilt roster faces UC Davis's turnover-hunting defense

Incarnate Word starts over

Incarnate Word will walk into Davis with almost nobody who wore the uniform last season. The players on this roster logged 0.5% of the Cardinals' minutes in 2025-26, so last season's team numbers describe a group that no longer exists. UC Davis, opening its first season in the Mountain West, returns 52.6% of its minutes and the league's comfort of a known rotation.

The Cardinals lost their two lead scorers. Davion Bailey averaged 18.6 points, and Tahj Staveskie, now at Akron, added 17.3. Shane Heirman rebuilt the backcourt through the portal. Ismail Habib is the likeliest go-to scorer after averaging 14.7 points at Southern Indiana. Mekhi Conner ran the offense at Sacred Heart and handed out 6.3 assists a game, but his jump shot was a problem: he made 27.6% of his threes. Brandon McCreesh (Bucknell) and forward D'Arrae Goodwin (San Diego) round out the newcomers with real college minutes.

By Nov. 11 the Cardinals will have had little time together, with a trip to UTEP scheduled for Nov. 8. That is still very little time for a group this new.

Turnovers are the pressure point

The Aggies' defense under Jim Les lived on takeaways. UC Davis forced turnovers on 20.7% of opponent possessions last season (turnover rate measures giveaways per 100 possessions), 22nd of 365 teams. Brayden Fagbemi, back for another season, averaged 2.0 steals in about 25 minutes a night.

That is a hard test for guards who are still learning each other's cuts and spacing. UC Davis also wants to run: its 71.3 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 32nd last season, while Incarnate Word's 65.9 sat 275th. A slower, half-court game is likely their best shot at limiting live-ball mistakes.

The Aggies gave the ball away too. Their own turnover rate of 17.9% ranked 263rd, so the possession battle may not tilt as far as the steal numbers suggest.

Sevilla and the whistle

Connor Sevilla is the steadiest piece in this game. The senior guard made 40.2% of his threes last season on 169 attempts and shot 90.3% at the line, the kind of finisher you want with the ball in a tight second half.

UC Davis drew fouls well, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 40.6%, 49th in the country. Incarnate Word's defense put opponents on the line at a rate of 39.9% last season, 308th. That came from different personnel, but with Heirman still coaching, it is a tendency worth watching. The Aggies need Sevilla's scoring more than ever after Marcus Wilson left for Sacramento State and Nils Cooper for UC Irvine.

Height on the Aggies' side

UC Davis averages 76.9 inches weighted by minutes, against 73.7 for an Incarnate Word roster heavy on guards. The Aggies haven't turned size into second chances: their offensive rebound rate (share of their own misses they recover) of 26.6% ranked 327th last season.

The frontcourt also lost Niko Rocak, who blocked 1.5 shots a game. Veniamin Abosi arrives from San Francisco as a stretch option, and a knee issue was mentioned when he committed; no update on it has surfaced. Clarence Massamba, who rarely played at Tennessee, also committed. UC Davis lists no injuries, though that listing is undated.