Illinois Fighting Illini vs Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction: Can Texas Tech's ball hawks steal enough possessions from No. 3 Illinois?

Pressure against the Illini machine

Illinois arrives in Lubbock with the best adjusted offense in the country from last season and a start to this one that looks even better. Texas Tech answers with a mostly new roster that has made its living by taking the ball away. Tonight's first road test for the No. 3 Illini turns on whether the Red Raiders can steal enough possessions to cover for their own missing jump shot.

Illinois ranked first in Division I in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, a measure of points per 100 possessions adjusted for opponents. Through two home blowouts it has posted a 66.3% effective field goal percentage, which gives threes extra weight. It has also made 76.9% of its twos, the best mark in the country.

Texas Tech's defense is built to break that rhythm. The Red Raiders have forced turnovers on 30.0% of opponent possessions, third nationally. Cruz Davis, the Hofstra transfer, is averaging 4.5 steals a game. Illinois has turned it over on 16.0% of its trips this season, a middling mark (117th in Division I), though its ball security ranked 14th last season. Texas Tech's numbers came against Jackson State and Bethune-Cookman, and every early-season sample is small, so this is the first real test of whether the pressure travels up a weight class.

Illinois owns the size

Weighted by minutes, Illinois' rotation averages 79.2 inches against 76.7 for Texas Tech. The gap shows on the offensive glass, where the Illini have grabbed 51.4% of their own misses, third in the nation.

The Red Raiders' frontcourt is thin. JT Toppin tore his right ACL in February; the school said Nov. 8 he is progressing in his rehab but gave no return date, and he isn't available tonight. UCF transfer Jamichael Stillwell won a temporary restraining order from a Lubbock judge making him eligible under the NCAA's new five-for-five rules, and McCasland reportedly said he would play against Illinois. Texas Tech hasn't said how much.

The home side does protect the rim, blocking 19.0% of opponent two-point tries. That is the counter to watch when Illinois drives at a smaller lineup.

Texas Tech's missing jump shot

The Red Raiders take 53.6% of their shots from three and have made just 26.7% of them. Donovan Atwell, the leading returner, is 3 of 16 from deep after shooting 45.6% from three last season. A shooter with that track record tends to recover, but the timing matters tonight.

Texas Tech has made up some of the difference at the line, with a free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 55.4%. It has converted only 61.3% of those tries, though, and Illinois keeps opponents off the stripe, ranking 13th in opponent free throw rate. If the threes don't fall and the whistles dry up, the Red Raiders run short of easy points.

Short rotations, rising numbers

Illinois is without Jake Davis (shoulder) and David Mirkovic, who is recovering from foot surgery and was back in a boot during the Baylor exhibition; the Illini might be without both until Big Ten play. Underwood cleared Andrej Stojakovic and Zvonimir Ivisic before the opener, and Stojakovic has answered with 22.5 points a game. Freshman Quentin Coleman, Ethan Brown, Lincoln Williams and Lucas Morillo are all in the rotation while the injured players heal.

Texas Tech returns only 34.2% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. The new guards carry it.

The market has leaned toward the visitors: the spread moved from 1.5 to 2.5 in Illinois' favor, and the total sits at 167.5. Illinois has played at 80.5 possessions per 40 minutes, a sharp turn from one of the slowest paces in the country last season, while Texas Tech has gone under in both games. Illinois won last season's meeting 81-77 in Champaign.