Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys prediction: Idaho State's rebuilt roster gets a second road test at Wyoming
The Bengals returned almost nothing from last season and shot their way to a 36-point loss in Logan; now a deeper Wyoming team that has never lost a non-conference home game under Sundance Wicks waits in Laramie.
| Spread | Wyoming -18.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146 |
- Wyoming should control this with its returning guards, unless Idaho State's new pieces fix the three-point shooting and rebounding that sank them at Utah State.
- Khaden Bennett against Idaho State's guards. He carried a 35.1% usage rate in the opener, and the Bengals allowed 94 points at Utah State.
- Wyoming is a 19-point favorite, up from -18.75 when our feed first saw the game. Idaho State lost by 36 at Utah State as a 26.75-point underdog.
A roster built from scratch
Idaho State is close to a new program wearing an old name. Only 3.6% of last season's minutes came back to Pocatello, and just two players from the 2025-26 team remain. Neither played a big role. Coach Ryan Looney started the rebuild in April, and the departures were his core: Connor Hollenbeck, who scored 13.2 points a game last season, is gone, and guard Martin Kheil is now at Iona.
That makes last season's numbers a weak guide. For the record, the 13-20 Bengals finished 250th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Wyoming finished 94th. The Cowboys turned over plenty too, with coach Sundance Wicks talking about folding 10 new players into the culture, but their 43.0% of returning minutes belongs largely to the guards who still run the offense.
What Logan exposed
Idaho State's opener was rough. The Bengals lost 94-58 at Utah State, a team ranked 26th in adjusted net efficiency, shooting 35.1% from the field and 12% from three. That three-point mark ranks 357th of 360 Division I teams after one game. The shooting won't stay that cold, but the guards who started didn't show much: Ty Virgil went 1 of 6 from deep.
The glass was a bigger warning. Idaho State grabbed 48.3% of Utah State's misses, which ranks 357th nationally. Wyoming was strong on the offensive boards last season, and handing out second chances is how a large spread gets covered.
There were bright spots. MaCarhy Morris played 33 minutes and put up 15 points and five assists. Kenyon DeMuynck handled a 30.1% usage rate and added three blocks and three steals. Those two are where the offense starts.
Wyoming's opener, with a caveat
The Cowboys beat Regis 95-48 on Tuesday, and six players scored in double figures. It was one game, so Wyoming's eye-catching season stats tell you little about level. The exhibitions gave a fuller picture: wins over Northern Colorado and College of Idaho and a loss at TCU.
The returners carry this group. Khaden Bennett scored 15 against Regis with a 35.1% usage rate after averaging 10.2 points last season. Nasir Meyer, last season's leading returning scorer at 12.9 points a game, added 11. Washington State transfer Parker Gerrits went 4 of 5 from the field off the bench.
The program has momentum. Wyoming won 18 games last season and made its first NIT in 23 years, and the Cowboys were picked fifth in the Mountain West. Under Wicks they are 13-0 at home against non-conference opponents.
Where the number sits
Books have Wyoming at -19, nudged up from -18.75, and the total has climbed to 149.5 from 147. The market expects scoring and sees no reason to fade the home team. No injury or eligibility news turned up for either side.
Utah State gave a useful benchmark. Idaho State closed at +26.75 there and lost by more, and that game went under a 152.25 total even with the Aggies scoring 94. The Bengals' offense dragged the total down. Wyoming isn't Utah State, but if Idaho State's shooting stays cold, the same split is in play here: a comfortable home cover with the scoring coming mostly from one side.
Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys line movement and odds
| Book | Bengals ML | Cowboys ML | Bengals spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1200 | -3000 | +18.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +1200 | -10000 | +18.5 (-108) | o144.5 (-117) |
| DraftKings | +1300 | -2800 | +18.5 (-112) | o146.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +1300 | -4000 | +18.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +1500 | -3000 | +18.5 (-110) | o146 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1400 | -4000 | +18.5 (-110) | o145.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1200 | -3000 | +18.5 (-105) | o144.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | — | — | +18.5 (-110) | o146 (-110) |
Where the money is on Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State Bengals: 67% of bets, 5% of the money; Wyoming Cowboys: 33% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wyoming Cowboys -18.5: 33% of bets, 10% of the money; Idaho State Bengals +18.5: 67% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 50% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 146.5: 50% of bets, 84% of the money.
Key players
- Khaden Bennett (Wyoming): Led Wyoming with 15 points against Regis on a 35.1% usage rate after shooting 35.7% from three last season.
- Nasir Meyer (Wyoming): Averaged 12.9 points last season and scored 11 in the opener.
- Parker Gerrits (Wyoming): Hit 4 of 5 shots, including 2 of 3 threes, for 12 points in 17 minutes against Regis.
- MaCarhy Morris (Idaho State): Played 33 minutes at Utah State and posted 15 points and five assists.
- Kenyon DeMuynck (Idaho State): Took on a 30.1% usage rate and added three blocks and three steals in the opener.
- Ty Virgil (Idaho State): Made 1 of 6 threes at Utah State, part of the team's cold start from deep.
Numbers that matter
| Idaho State returning minutes | 3.6% | Almost nothing carried over from last season, so last year's team numbers say little about these Bengals. |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho State 3-point % | 12.0% | The opener at Utah State ranks 357th of 360 and drove the 36-point loss. |
| Idaho State defensive rebound % | 48.3% | Ranked 357th nationally after one game, an opening for a Wyoming team that crashed the offensive glass last season. |
| Wyoming spread | -19 | Moved up from -18.75 when our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 149.5 | Up from 147, though Idaho State's opener stayed under a higher number. |
Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys: quick answers
Who is favored in Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys?
Wyoming is favored by 18.5 points (Wyoming -18.5).
What is the over/under for Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys?
The total is 146 points.
When is Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys?
No: Idaho State Bengals has stayed at +18.5, and the total moved from 146.5 to 144.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Idaho State Bengals vs Wyoming Cowboys?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Idaho State Bengals: 67% of bets, 5% of the money; Wyoming Cowboys: 33% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wyoming Cowboys -18.5: 33% of bets, 10% of the money; Idaho State Bengals +18.5: 67% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 50% of bets, 16% of the money; Under 146.5: 50% of bets, 84% of the money.