Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers prediction: Northern Iowa rebuilds its elite defense almost from scratch against Green Bay
The Panthers return under a tenth of last season's minutes, and a Green Bay offense built around Marcus Hall's shooting gets an early read on what's left.
Northern Iowa Panthers covered the closing spread (Green Bay Phoenix +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Northern Iowa -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 150.5 |
- Expect a slow, grinding game: both teams ranked among the nation's slowest last season, and Northern Iowa's new roster inherits a defense-first identity.
- Marcus Hall's outside shooting against a Panthers perimeter defense that held opponents to the third-lowest 3-point percentage in the country last season.
- No spread or total has posted yet; last season's final adjusted net ratings were 12.2 for Northern Iowa and -4.6 for Green Bay.
A defense with almost nobody back
Northern Iowa was one of the hardest teams in the country to score on last season. Its defensive efficiency, points allowed per 100 possessions, was 96.4, sixth in Division I, and opponents hit just 28.7% of their threes, third-best nationally. That defense helped the Panthers win their sixth Missouri Valley tournament title and reach the NCAA Tournament for the ninth time.
Almost none of the players who built it remain. Players on this season's roster logged only 9.6% of last season's minutes. Trey Campbell left for Utah, Leon Bond III for Iowa State and Will Hornseth for Utah State. The top returner, Kyle Pock, played 12.7 minutes a game off the bench.
The coach is new too. Kyle Green was hired on April 1 after five years as an assistant to T.J. Otzelberger at Iowa State, a program known for defense. Last season's numbers describe a program standard, not this lineup, so treat them as a guide to what Green wants rather than what he has.
Hall anchors a reshaped Green Bay
Green Bay brings back more, though still not much: 31.7% of last season's minutes. The constant is Marcus Hall, who started all 30 of his games and shot 40.6% from three on 155 attempts. As a team the Phoenix posted an effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 makes, that ranked 38th nationally.
Doug Gottlieb, whose contract was extended through 2030-31 in June, has to replace his backcourt. Preston Ruedinger, a 41.1% 3-point shooter, is gone, and C.J. O'Hara left for Wright State. The newcomers carrying the load are Detroit Mercy transfer Orlando Lovejoy, a downhill guard who made 89.2% of his free throws, and Ohio forward Aidan Hadaway. Transfer Jalen Overway was set to miss the season with a torn ACL suffered in preseason, as of early September reports.
Uelmen leads the Panther newcomers
The new Panthers aren't short on production elsewhere. Four of them, Greyson Uelmen, Tate McCubbin, Isaiah Johnson-Arigu and Ian Smikle, were named to the Missouri Valley preseason watchlist of 33 players.
Uelmen is the likely focal point. He scored 17.1 points a game at North Dakota with a usage rate of 29.3%, meaning he finished a large share of his team's possessions. Johnson-Arigu was efficient off the bench at St. Thomas, and McCubbin made 64 threes at Austin Peay. How quickly they mesh in Green's system is the biggest unknown in the building.
Free throws in a slow game
Possessions should be scarce. Green Bay ranked 312th in pace last season and Northern Iowa 351st, and with fewer trips down the floor, every free point matters more.
That is where Green Bay had an edge last season. Its free throw rate, free throw attempts per field goal attempt, was 41.6%, 35th nationally. Northern Iowa rarely got there itself, ranking 360th, but it also kept opponents off the line, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 54th. Lovejoy's ability to draw fouls is the test.
The flip side is Green Bay's defense, which ranked 321st in efficiency last season and allowed opponents to shoot 36.1% from three. Unless the newcomers fix that, Northern Iowa's new shooters should find open looks.
Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers line movement and odds
| Book | Phoenix ML | Panthers ML | Phoenix spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +143 | -180 | +3.5 (-112) | o150.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | +3.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 | +3.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 | +3.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-112) |
| FanDuel | +134 | -162 | +3.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -180 | +3.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | +3.5 (-110) | o151 (-110) |
Where the money is on Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Green Bay Phoenix: 50% of bets, 53% of the money; Northern Iowa Panthers: 50% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Iowa Panthers -3.5: 49% of bets, 29% of the money; Green Bay Phoenix +3.5: 51% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 51% of bets, 5% of the money; Under 150.5: 49% of bets, 96% of the money.
Key players
- Marcus Hall (Green Bay): Started all 30 games last season and shot 40.6% from three with a 121.7 offensive rating.
- Orlando Lovejoy (Green Bay): Averaged 15.9 points last season at Detroit Mercy and made 89.2% of his free throws.
- Aidan Hadaway (Green Bay): Posted 14.4 points and 7.4 rebounds a game at Ohio last season.
- Greyson Uelmen (Northern Iowa): Scored 17.1 points a game at North Dakota last season on a 29.3% usage rate.
- Isaiah Johnson-Arigu (Northern Iowa): Posted a 60% effective field goal percentage off the bench at St. Thomas last season.
- Tate McCubbin (Northern Iowa): Made 64 threes in 31 starts at Austin Peay last season.
Numbers that matter
| UNI returning minutes | 9.6% | Share of last season's minutes played by players on this season's Panthers roster, making last year's team stats a weak guide. |
|---|---|---|
| UNI defensive efficiency, last season | 6th | Northern Iowa allowed 96.4 points per 100 possessions in 2025-26, among the best in the country. |
| Green Bay free throw rate, last season | 41.6% | Ranked 35th nationally, a key edge in a game likely to have few possessions. |
| Marcus Hall 3-point %, last season | 40.6% | Green Bay's top returner and the shooter Northern Iowa's new perimeter defense must track. |
Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers: quick answers
What was the final score of Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
Green Bay Phoenix 76, Northern Iowa Panthers 89 (final). Northern Iowa Panthers covered the closing spread (Green Bay Phoenix +3.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
Northern Iowa is favored by 3.5 points (Northern Iowa -3.5).
What is the over/under for Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
The total is 150.5 points.
When is Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
No: Green Bay Phoenix has stayed at +3.5, and the total is still 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Green Bay Phoenix vs Northern Iowa Panthers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Green Bay Phoenix: 50% of bets, 53% of the money; Northern Iowa Panthers: 50% of bets, 47% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Northern Iowa Panthers -3.5: 49% of bets, 29% of the money; Green Bay Phoenix +3.5: 51% of bets, 71% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 51% of bets, 5% of the money; Under 150.5: 49% of bets, 96% of the money.