Furman vs Holy Cross prediction: Furman's remade roster aims at Holy Cross's soft interior

A contender built from scratch

Furman went 22-13 last season, but almost none of that team will be on the floor in Worcester. Players on this roster accounted for just 29.5% of last season's minutes, so last season's team numbers are a loose guide at best. Alex Wilkins, who averaged 17.8 points, is now at Kentucky, and Asa Thomas left for UIC.

The rebuild runs through transfers. Marcus Kell averaged 13.7 points at Western Carolina, Jaxson Bell arrives from Army and Luka Toews from Boston College. Charles Johnston, the top returner, gives them a fixed point: he pulled down 9.0 rebounds a game last season. In early October, Furman was tabbed as the preseason favorite in the Southern Conference, with Johnston and Kell on the preseason all-conference team.

The only look at the new group came in an Oct. 8 exhibition at Alabama, a 111-93 loss. Kell led Furman with 22 points, and freshman Cameron Elwer added 10.

Where Holy Cross gave way

Last season Holy Cross could not protect the paint. Opponents made 56.5% of their two-pointers, 346th of 365 teams, and the Crusaders blocked shots at a rate that ranked 358th.

That sets up Furman's best habit from last season. The Paladins made 60.6% of their twos, seventh in the country. The caveat is that much of that finishing left with the departures, so the question is whether Johnston and Kell can recreate it.

The outside shot is the swing. Furman took threes on 47.2% of its shots last season, 31st nationally, but made only 32.8%, which ranked 254th. The new group was hot at Alabama, going 18-of-43 from deep. If that carries over, Holy Cross has to choose between guarding the arc and guarding the rim.

One shot at a time

Holy Cross rarely got a second chance last season. Its offensive rebound rate, the share of its own misses it recovered, was 23.0%, which ranked 357th. Furman finished 50th in defensive rebound rate last season, so extra Crusader possessions may be hard to come by.

Furman's defense forced few mistakes last season, either. Its forced turnover rate of 14.3% ranked 337th, which means Holy Cross should get clean looks but will have to make them. Both teams played slowly last season, with Holy Cross 279th in pace, so expect a game of fewer possessions. In a close finish, watch the line: Furman made only 69.3% of its free throws last season, 285th nationally.

Paulsen's patchwork in Worcester

Dave Paulsen opens his fourth season after an 11-22 finish that left Holy Cross 329th in adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Four freshmen and four transfers joined the program, and freshman Jaelon Germany is expected to contribute.

The frontcourt is the worry. Senior guard Nugent is still recovering from an Achilles injury, and as of Oct. 31 his return was framed as a goal for Patriot League play, not the non-conference schedule. Transfers Bradyn Foster (Penn) and Elijah Flowers (Old Dominion) battled injuries through the preseason. That leaves senior forward Declan Ryan as the top post option against Furman's size, with Jude Haigh having started both exhibitions.

The final exhibition was not encouraging: a 64-48 home loss to Central Connecticut State on Oct. 27, after Holy Cross had led early in the first half.