Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles prediction: Florida's frontcourt tests a Florida State team that can't block shots
The Seminoles have scored at will against two soft opponents with an almost entirely new roster, and the No. 1 Gators bring the size to find out what is real.
Florida Gators covered the closing spread (Florida Gators -8.5). The game went under the closing total of 164.5.
| Spread | Florida -9 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 164.75 |
- Expect Florida to control the paint and the glass, while Florida State leans on transfer shot-making and free throws to stay close.
- Rueben Chinyelu and Alex Condon against a Seminoles front line blocking just 3.1% of opponent twos, 353rd in Division I.
- Florida is a 9.5-point favorite, down from 10, and the total rose to 166.5 even though both Florida games went under.
Nobody guards the rim
Florida State has looked like one of the best offenses in the country for two games. Its offensive efficiency ranks 8th in Division I. Now the defending national champion and No. 1 team in the country arrives to test how much of that early form will hold.
The pressure point is the paint. Florida State's block rate (blocks per opponent two-point attempt) is 3.1%, 353rd in the country. That number came against Florida A&M and Troy, not against a front line like Florida's. Chinyelu is pulling down 11.0 rebounds a game. Condon nearly posted a triple-double against Jacksonville and is averaging 5.5 assists from the frontcourt, so the Gators can play through the post instead of just finishing there.
One oddity cuts the other way. Florida has made only 48.4% of its twos, 272nd nationally. Last season the same core made 58.6% of them. The Gators were also the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country last season, and a shot-blocking void is the kind of matchup that pulls that version back into view.
A rebuilt roster's first exam
Luke Loucks, in his second season, essentially started over. Players on Florida State's roster accounted for just 6.3% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this team. Florida, by contrast, brought back four starters: Fland, Haugh, Condon and Chinyelu.
The Seminoles' two wins came against opponents ranked 321st and 149th in adjusted net efficiency. The new pieces have produced. Colorado transfer Sebastian Rancik is scoring 21.5 points a game. Kam Taylor, the headline pickup from UNC Asheville, averaged 18.9 points there last season. Shon Abaev led all scorers with 20 against Troy, and freshman Marcis Ponder posted his second straight double-double in that game.
Florida's opener against Miami, ranked 33rd in adjusted net efficiency, is the best win either team owns. Florida State hasn't yet faced anything resembling this defense.
How the Seminoles hang around
Florida State's best case is a clean, efficient game. The Seminoles rank 46th in turnover rate (turnovers per 100 possessions), and Florida's defense ranks 304th at forcing them. The Gators have been loose with the ball themselves, ranking 242nd in turnover rate.
The free throw line is where this could get interesting. Both teams get there constantly: Florida ranks 21st in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) and Florida State 12th. What they do once they arrive is very different. The Seminoles are making 82.2% of their free throws, 18th nationally. The Gators are at 62.9%, 294th. If the game is within reach late, that gap matters for a cover.
Where the number sits
Florida is a 9.5-point favorite after our feed first saw the line at 10, a small move toward the home side. The total has climbed from 164.5 to 166.5.
That rise runs against Florida's early profile. The Gators have played at 67.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 290th in pace, a sharp slowdown from a top-30 tempo last season, and both of their games stayed under. Florida State is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 to the over, though those results came against overmatched opponents.
The series has gone Florida's way for three straight years, but last season's meeting ended 78-76. One note on availability: Denzel Aberdeen is playing this season under a temporary injunction against the NCAA, and no appeal ruling had surfaced.
Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles line movement and odds
| Book | Gators ML | Seminoles ML | Gators spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -400 | +310 | -8.5 (-110) | o163.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -480 | +350 | -9.5 (-114) | o164.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | -485 | +370 | -8.5 (-115) | o164.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | -550 | +380 | -8.5 (-120) | o163.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | -475 | +360 | -8.5 (-115) | o164 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -430 | +330 | -9.5 (-102) | o164.5 (-106) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -475 | +350 | -9.5 (-110) | o164.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | -455 | +345 | -9 (-110) | o164 (-110) |
Where the money is on Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Gators: 56% of bets, 87% of the money; Florida St Seminoles: 44% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Gators -8.5: 58% of bets, 42% of the money; Florida St Seminoles +8.5: 42% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 49% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 164.5: 51% of bets, 20% of the money.
Key players
- Thomas Haugh (Florida): He is averaging 16.5 points and has hit 6 of 12 threes after shooting 32.4% from deep last season.
- Alex Condon (Florida): He is averaging 5.5 assists and 2.0 blocks, and he nearly had a triple-double against Jacksonville.
- Rueben Chinyelu (Florida): He is averaging 11.0 rebounds and has made 66.7% of his shots against a Florida State team that rarely blocks one.
- Denzel Aberdeen (Florida): He averaged 13.5 points at Kentucky last season and is playing under a temporary court injunction.
- Sebastian Rancik (Florida State): The Colorado transfer is scoring 21.5 points a game and making 93.8% of his free throws.
- Kam Taylor (Florida State): He is averaging 15.0 points after scoring 18.9 a game at UNC Asheville last season.
- Shon Abaev (Florida State): He is averaging 6.0 assists and led all scorers with 20 points against Troy.
- Marcis Ponder (Florida State): He is averaging 10.5 rebounds and posted a second straight double-double against Troy.
Numbers that matter
| FSU block rate | 3.1% | That ranks 353rd in Division I, and it came against weak competition before Florida's big front line. |
|---|---|---|
| Free throw % gap | 82.2% | Florida State's mark ranks 18th, while Florida sits at 62.9% even though both teams get to the line often. |
| FSU returning minutes | 6.3% | The Seminoles are almost entirely new, which makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. |
| Spread | -9.5 | Florida's price has dipped from 10 since our feed first saw the game. |
| Total | 166.5 | The total is up from 164.5, even though Florida has played at the 290th-ranked pace and gone under twice. |
Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles: quick answers
What was the final score of Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
Florida Gators 81, Florida St Seminoles 72 (final). Florida Gators covered the closing spread (Florida Gators -8.5). The game went under the closing total of 164.5.
Who is favored in Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
Florida is favored by 9 points (Florida -9).
What is the over/under for Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
The total is 164.75 points.
When is Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
Yes: Florida Gators opened -9.5 and is now -8.5, and the total moved from 162.5 to 164.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Florida Gators vs Florida St Seminoles?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Florida Gators: 56% of bets, 87% of the money; Florida St Seminoles: 44% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Florida Gators -8.5: 58% of bets, 42% of the money; Florida St Seminoles +8.5: 42% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 164.5: 49% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 164.5: 51% of bets, 20% of the money.