Florida A&M vs Kansas City prediction: Kansas City's total rebuild under Turgeon tests FAMU in St. Pete

Turgeon's blank slate

Kansas City arrives in St. Petersburg with a new coach and not a single minute of returning production. Florida A&M gets something close to a home game: its own event, its own fans and proceeds flowing back to its program. The question is how far a team that went 4-27 last season can reinvent itself in one offseason.

The share of last season's minutes played by players on this Roos roster is 0.0%. That makes the old team numbers a weak guide. Last season's group finished ninth in the Summit League and ranked 356th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Marvin Menzies was not retained. Mark Turgeon rebuilt with nine freshmen and five transfers, led by seniors Jaylen Smith and Sebastian Hartmann.

The imports should shoot it far better. Last season's Roos made 30.1% of their threes, 346th nationally. Carl Daughtery Jr. hit 42% from deep at UC Davis. Hartmann made 43.5% in a short stint at Chattanooga, and forward Assane Diop shot 41.9% at San Diego. Smith, the volume guard, averaged 9.3 points at East Tennessee State.

Turnovers cut both ways

Florida A&M's identity last season was disruption. The Rattlers forced turnovers on 20.9% of opponent possessions, 20th in the country. They also gave it away on 23.1% of their own trips, 364th of 365. Few teams lived that chaotically on both ends.

That style may not carry over intact. Micah Octave, who averaged 2.7 steals, is gone, and only 28.2% of FAMU's minutes return. UAlbany transfer Jaden Kempson, who averaged 1.5 steals, is the likeliest new source of pressure. For a Kansas City roster this new, ball security in a first meaningful game is a genuine question, and every live-ball turnover feeds FAMU's transition game.

Sanders and a reshuffled backcourt

Jaquan Sanders is FAMU's anchor after averaging 11.7 points in 31.8 minutes last season. Antonio Baker Jr. added 9.9 points. The newcomers bring range of outcomes: Ralph Martino Jr. posted a 63.9% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) at St. Francis in a small role, while Kempson shot 43.1% by that measure at UAlbany. Four-star freshman guard Jayden Joseph and Benjamin Ndour, a Senegalese forward who last played professionally in Italy, add new pieces. Ward hasn't named starters.

The free-throw line is a two-way swing. FAMU got to the line often last season, ranking 106th in free throw rate, but its defense ranked 312th at keeping opponents off it. Sanders, an 83.7% foul shooter, is the player FAMU wants holding the ball late.

FAMU's event, FAMU's crowd

The game is on a neutral floor at the McArthur Center on the Eckerd College campus, but the setting leans one way. The Showdown in St. Pete benefits the Florida A&M program, and Ward and his team are scheduled for a "FAMU Takes Over St. Pete" community event the day before. Tip is set for noon, opening a four-day event that also includes George Mason, Bradley and Coppin State.

Neither program has reported injuries or eligibility issues. Kansas City's only preseason tune-up was an exhibition against Montana State on Oct. 24, so this is the first real test of Turgeon's rebuild.

What to watch

• Kansas City's ball security against FAMU's pressure in the opening minutes.
• Daughtery's and Hartmann's volume from three, the clearest break from last season's Roos.
• FAMU's rotation: how Ward splits minutes among Sanders, Kempson, Martino and Joseph.
• Fouls: FAMU sent opponents to the line often last season, which can keep an underdog close.