Fairleigh Dickinson vs East Texas A&M prediction: Alonzo Dodd leads an almost brand-new East Texas A&M against FDU

A roster built from scratch

East Texas A&M will look almost nothing like the team that won this matchup 70-65 at FDU last November. Players on this season's roster account for just 6.8% of last season's minutes, and the departures include Gianni Hunt, Ronnie Harrison, Noah Pagotto and Damian Garcia. Ronnie Harrison left for Washington State and Noah Pagotto for Northern Kentucky.

The player who fills the gap is Alonzo Dodd, a guard from App State who started every game there last season. He averaged 13.8 points and 4.1 assists while using 24.5% of his team's possessions, and his offensive rating of 113.8 (points produced per 100 possessions) says he did it efficiently. Behind him, Sam Houston transfer Jaxson Ford made 60.4% of his shots in a reserve role. The roster also lists Yvain Vidal, a 7-foot freshman forward, though his role isn't known.

Jaret von Rosenberg, in his 10th season, has to build an identity on the fly. This is also the season the Lions' wait for NCAA postseason eligibility was set to end, and their last season in the Field House.

FDU has a little more continuity

Fairleigh Dickinson isn't stable either, but it brings back more. Its returners played 25.2% of last season's minutes, led by guard David Jevtic, who averaged 6.6 points in 20.1 minutes. Raysean Johnson made 17 starts. The Knights lost Joey Niesman and Eric Parnell, who averaged 12.3 and 10.7 points last season; Parnell is now at Georgia State.

Jack Castleberry, entering his fourth season, added frontcourt help in Pepperdine transfer Pavle Stosic and Saint Peter's transfer Bol Agu. FDU opens with road games at Illinois on Nov. 2 and at Butler on Nov. 4, so it will arrive in Commerce with two tough tests behind it. East Texas A&M opens at Oklahoma.

Lots of threes, few makes

Both programs lived behind the arc last season and missed most of what they took. East Texas A&M ranked 41st nationally in 3-point attempt rate, FDU 58th. Neither converted: FDU shot 31.0% from deep (325th of 365) and the Lions 32.3% (277th).

Both defenses also let opponents shoot well from three. FDU's opponents hit 36.4% from three, ETAMU's 36.3%, both among the worst 35 in the country. The shooters are mostly new, but if either coach keeps the same style, this game could swing on a couple of hot stretches.

Tempo and the glass

Last season FDU played slowly (336th in pace) and owned its defensive boards, grabbing 74.0% of opponents' misses, 28th nationally. East Texas A&M played faster and rebounded poorly on both ends, ranking 325th in offensive rebound rate.

The caveat is big: FDU's best rebounder, Taeshaud Jackson, averaged 8.4 boards and is gone, along with center Cyril Martynov. Whether Stosic and Agu can keep that rebounding edge is a fair early question. Last season's final adjusted ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had FDU 331st in net efficiency and ETAMU 292nd. With this much roster change, treat both as rough starting points.

What to watch - Dodd's shot volume and how often he gets teammates involved - Whether FDU's new frontcourt still controls the defensive glass - Three-point accuracy from two teams that shot poorly last season