Fairfield Stags vs Wisconsin Badgers prediction: Wisconsin's missing jump shot faces a 23.5-point spread against Fairfield

Big wins, bigger spreads

Wisconsin is unbeaten and still hasn't looked like the team the market keeps pricing. The Badgers closed as a 25.25-point favorite against Denver in the Nov. 2 opener and won 75-68. Four days later they beat Delaware 73-64 as an even bigger favorite. Both games stayed under the closing total, and the Denver game carried a warning: Wisconsin led 44-30 at halftime and couldn't hold that cushion.

Fairfield arrives at the Kohl Center tonight as a 25.5-point underdog, and the line has drifted toward Wisconsin since it first appeared, moving from 22.5 to 25.5. The total has climbed too, to 150.5. The programs have met once before, in 1992. The question now is whether a remade Wisconsin offense can pull away from a far weaker team that is built to steal possessions.

Where the threes went

Last season's Badgers ranked 11th nationally in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) by firing threes at one of the highest rates in the country. The two guards who drove that offense are gone: Boyd graduated and Blackwell is now at Duke. Wisconsin brings back 44.5% of last season's minutes, so last year's numbers say little about this group.

The replacement shooting hasn't arrived. Wisconsin is making 28.6% of its threes, 269th in Division I. Its free-throw shooting is worse, at 55.6%, which ranks 346th. That matters against a big spread, because late free throws are how favorites stretch leads.

The bright spots are Braeden Carrington, who leads the team at 15.5 points a game, and Miami (Ohio) transfer Eian Elmer, who is hitting 44.4% from deep. Carrington is playing under a California court injunction granted Oct. 20, and the NCAA is appealing it.

Fairfield steals, then struggles

Fairfield's best weapon is its hands. The Stags force turnovers on 24.5% of opponent possessions, 48th nationally, and they rarely give the ball away themselves. Wisconsin has protected the ball well so far, with a 13.2% turnover rate. Still, a backcourt this new is exactly what pressure is designed to test, and every live-ball turnover is a possession Wisconsin can't turn into margin.

The trouble is what Fairfield does with the ball. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) is 43.6%, which ranks 331st. The Stags take very few threes, so they need twos against a Wisconsin defense holding opponents to 41.8% inside the arc.

Misses tend to end Fairfield possessions. Wisconsin grabs 80.0% of opponents' misses, 24th nationally. Fairfield ranks 312th on the offensive glass.

Wucherpfennig against a bigger front line

Fairfield's offense runs through Declan Wucherpfennig, a returning guard averaging 21.0 points a game. Freshman Cole Edelen is the only steady perimeter threat, and he hit all four of his threes against Bryant.

The other end looks worse for the Stags. Opponents are making 62.5% of their twos against Fairfield, which ranks 337th. Greg Gard called this roster "as big as we've been in a long time," and Nolan Winter and Hofstra transfer Victory Onuetu started up front in the exhibitions. Will Garlock, a 7-footer who missed the opener, debuted against Delaware and didn't score. Onuetu's foul trouble scrambled the rotation against Denver, so his minutes are worth watching.

Both teams' season numbers come from two games against modest opponents, so read them as early signals rather than settled identities.