Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries prediction: Elon's inside game runs into George Washington's shot-blocking wall
The Phoenix barely shoot threes, and GW has spent two games turning the paint into a dead end.
| Spread | George Washington -13.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 146.5 |
- GW's rim protection should squeeze Elon's interior offense; the Phoenix stay close only if they win the offensive glass.
- Dylan James and GW's shot-blockers against Josh Dalton and Hunter Harding, Elon's two most efficient scorers.
- GW is -14.5, up from -13.5; the total sits at 148.5, and GW has gone under in both games.
The paint is closed
These programs last played in 1937-38. Tonight's game in Foggy Bottom turns on one question: can an Elon team built to score inside get anything near the rim against a George Washington defense that has allowed almost nothing there?
GW opponents have an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 34.1%, which ranks 8th in Division I. The damage is done close to the basket. Opponents are making 33.8% of their twos, 13th nationally, and the Revolutionaries block 18.9% of opponents' two-point attempts. Navy scored 39 points in the opener.
Dylan James anchors it. The forward averages 2.5 blocks and had four against Hampton while going 6-of-6 from the floor.
That is a bad fit for Elon. The Phoenix take threes on just 25.4% of their shots, 360th of 364, and get their points inside. GW's two opponents finished last season 154th and 272nd in adjusted net efficiency, so the sample is small and the competition soft. Still, Elon has to beat James at the rim or shoot more threes than it wants to.
Elon's answer on the glass
Elon's best counter comes after the miss. The Phoenix grab 41.0% of their own missed shots, 57th nationally, and outrebounded UNC Greensboro 45-22 on Friday. Center Hunter Harding averages 7.0 rebounds in only 22 minutes.
GW has finished defensive possessions well, though. It rebounds 79.0% of opponents' misses, 34th in the country. If Elon's misses at the rim come back as putbacks, the Phoenix can stay in range. If GW cleans them up, the possessions dry up fast.
Josh Dalton is the scorer to watch. The Loyola Marymount transfer averages 17.5 points and opened with a career-high 21 at Columbia.
Two rosters starting over
Neither team looks much like it did last season. GW returns just 12.2% of last season's minutes after losing Trey Autry to Wisconsin and big man Rafael Castro. Elon returns 27.9%, and leading scorer Chandler Cuthrell is gone. Last season's final adjusted ratings had GW 79th and Elon 228th, but with this much turnover those rankings say little about tonight.
What the new GW group can do is shoot. The Revolutionaries are hitting 45.8% from three, 9th nationally. Felix Kossaras, a Colorado transfer, is 6-of-9 off the bench. Ten GW players are averaging at least 15 minutes, so Elon will face fresh legs all night. Opponents have shot 27.0% from three against the Phoenix so far, a mark this new Elon perimeter defense will have to hold up against better shooters.
Aranguren and the number
Jean Aranguren took a head injury in an October exhibition against Georgetown and was listed questionable afterward. He has played since, scoring 17 points against Hampton on Saturday, including 7-of-9 at the line. No clearance has been announced, so his status has not been formally settled. Jalen Rougier-Roane and Andrija Vukovic were tagged "undisclosed" in that October exhibition, and there has been no update on either.
The market has moved toward GW. The spread went from -13.5 to -14.5, and the total has stayed at 148.5. Both teams play slowly: Elon ranks 294th in pace and GW 250th. GW has gone under in both games and failed to cover -20 against Hampton. Elon is 2-0 against the spread, including an outright win as a 4.5-point underdog at Columbia.
Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries line movement and odds
| Book | Phoenix ML | Revolutionaries ML | Phoenix spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +650 | -1250 | +13.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +750 | -1200 | +13.5 (-108) | o147.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +750 | -1400 | +13.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +750 | -1200 | +13.5 (-110) | o146.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +740 | -1250 | +13.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +650 | -1300 | +13.5 (-110) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +700 | -1100 | +13.5 (-110) | o147 (-110) |
Where the money is on Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries
On the Kalshi moneyline: Elon Phoenix: 62% of bets, 50% of the money; GW Revolutionaries: 38% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: GW Revolutionaries -12.5: 57% of bets, 57% of the money; Elon Phoenix +12.5: 43% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 18% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 146.5: 82% of bets, 92% of the money.
Key players
- Josh Dalton (Elon): Averaging 17.5 points with a 65.9% effective field goal percentage after transferring from Loyola Marymount.
- Hunter Harding (Elon): Averages 7.0 rebounds and had 8 assists at Columbia, making him Elon's hub on the interior.
- Raúl Villar (Elon): The Charlotte transfer is handing out 6.0 assists per game in 31 minutes.
- Bryson Cokley (Elon): A returner who shot 39.2% from three last season and carries the team's highest usage at 25.8%.
- Dylan James (George Washington): Averaging 2.5 blocks and shooting 76.9% from the field.
- Jean Aranguren (George Washington): Scored 17 against Hampton despite an unresolved head injury from October.
- Felix Kossaras (George Washington): Has made 6 of 9 threes off the bench since arriving from Colorado.
- Omari Witherspoon (George Washington): The Pittsburgh transfer is shooting 22.2% from the field but contributes 3.5 assists per game.
Numbers that matter
| GW opponent eFG% | 34.1% | Ranks 8th nationally, built mostly on shutting down two-point shots. |
|---|---|---|
| Elon 3-point attempt rate | 25.4% | Only four teams shoot fewer threes, so Elon has to score inside against GW's shot-blockers. |
| Elon offensive rebound % | 41.0% | Ranks 57th and is Elon's best way to get extra possessions against GW. |
| GW spread | -14.5 | Moved a point toward GW from the first line our feed recorded. |
| GW returning minutes | 12.2% | So little of last season's roster is back that last season's ratings are a weak guide. |
Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries: quick answers
Who is favored in Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries?
George Washington is favored by 13.5 points (George Washington -13.5).
What is the over/under for Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries?
The total is 146.5 points.
When is Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries?
Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries?
Yes: Elon Phoenix opened +14.5 and is now +13.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 147.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Elon Phoenix vs GW Revolutionaries?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Elon Phoenix: 62% of bets, 50% of the money; GW Revolutionaries: 38% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: GW Revolutionaries -12.5: 57% of bets, 57% of the money; Elon Phoenix +12.5: 43% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 146.5: 18% of bets, 8% of the money; Under 146.5: 82% of bets, 92% of the money.