Eastern Washington Eagles vs Oregon Ducks prediction: Oregon's paint-first rebuild draws an Eastern Washington defense Stanford shredded inside

The Ducks live inside

Oregon opened its first season after Dana Altman by ignoring the three-point line. Only 19.0% of its shots against Montana were threes, which ranks 359th of 360 Division I teams in attempt rate. The Ducks made up for it inside, hitting 63.8% of their two-pointers (64th) in an 87-69 win.

That plan lines up with Eastern Washington's worst moment of the opener. Stanford made 74.2% of its twos against the Eagles, a figure that ranks 358th. Eastern's block rate, the share of opponent two-point tries it swats, sat at 6.5% (275th). If Oregon gets the same looks at the rim, the Eagles have little to deter them.

The matchup to watch is Malique Ewin, who posted 14 points and 13 rebounds against Montana and carried the highest usage on the team. Oregon's own interior defense was sharp in that game too: Montana made just 32.1% of its twos, 24th nationally.

Hamilton and a thin backcourt

Eastern Washington brings back only 26.5% of last season's minutes, and the most important returner is doing almost everything. Alton Hamilton IV, a preseason all-Big Sky pick, scored 20 points with nine rebounds at Stanford while using 38.6% of the Eagles' possessions.

He needs help. Starting guard Andrew Cook, the other preseason all-conference selection, missed the Stanford game with a left hand injury, one of three Eagles out injured. Eastern hasn't said whether he plays Friday. Without him the Eagles shot 26.7% from three and turned it over on 20.6% of possessions (258th).

The likeliest source of shooting is Western Michigan transfer Jalen Griffith, who made 41.6% of his threes there last season but went 0-for-4 in the opener.

A rebuilt Oregon under an interim

Altman retired abruptly on Oct. 7, and assistant Tony Stubblefield is coaching the season as interim head coach, with a national search to follow. Stubblefield's career record as a head coach is 30-66. His roster returns just 20.7% of last season's minutes.

The newcomers carried the opener. San Francisco transfer Tyrone Riley IV had 17 points and four steals, Boise State's Andrew Meadow added 14, and Boston College's Fred Payne ran the offense with five assists. The preseason was bumpier: Oregon went 1-2 in exhibitions, including a 71-65 loss to Seattle, and Stubblefield said it was "really hard to say" who would start. He went with Payne, Riley, Meadow, Ewin and Taylor Bol Bowen against Montana.

Where Eastern can steal possessions

The Eagles' best counter is the offensive glass. They rebounded 39.4% of their own misses at Stanford (104th), keeping a 14.5-point underdog within range. Oregon closed out possessions well against Montana, grabbing 81.1% of available defensive rebounds (36th), so second chances may be scarce.

Eastern's ball security is the bigger worry, but Oregon did little to exploit it in its opener, forcing turnovers at a rate that ranked 280th. The Ducks win this game by scoring, not by pressing.

What the market is saying

Oregon is a 16.5-point favorite after our feed first recorded the line at -15.0, so money has moved toward the Ducks. The total has slipped to 151.5 from 153.

The opening week cuts both ways. Eastern covered at Stanford and stayed under, playing at a crawl: its pace of 63 possessions per 40 minutes ranked 346th. Oregon won comfortably but fell short of a -19.25 closing number, and that game went over.

Last season's final ratings, a weak guide given both rosters' turnover, had Oregon 99th in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and Eastern 192nd. Tip is 6 p.m. ET on B1G+.