Detroit Mercy Titans vs Xavier Musketeers prediction: Detroit Mercy's 32-point opener runs into Xavier's swarming defense

A 32-point night at Marquette

Detroit Mercy's season began with a 93-32 loss at Marquette, and the box score was as bleak as the final. The Titans trailed 41-19 at half. Their effective field goal percentage, which counts threes 1.5 times, was 26.3%, last among 364 Division I teams. They turned the ball over on 30.3% of possessions, 362nd nationally.

Some of that is personnel. Mercy returns only 38.7% of last season's minutes, and the two players who did the most damage are gone: Orlando Lovejoy (15.9 points per game) left for Green Bay and TJ Nadeau, a 46.7% three-point shooter, left for Tulane. That makes last season's 17-15 team a weak guide. What's left is a guard group still sorting out who takes the shots, and one bad night in Milwaukee against a team Marquette's caliber isn't a full verdict. But it is the only evidence this season has produced.

Xavier's hands set the tone

The worst possible opponent for a team that can't hold the ball is one that lives in passing lanes. Through two home wins, Xavier forces turnovers on 27.9% of opponent possessions (16th) and posts a steal rate of 19.0%, seventh in the country. Tru Washington, a transfer from Miami, is averaging 3.0 steals a game, and Chance Westry adds 2.5.

The defense behind the pressure has been just as stingy. Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 32.1% against Xavier, third nationally, and Xavier has allowed 20.5 first-half points per game, sixth. Mount St. Mary's trailed 51-16 at half.

Xavier's own ball security is the soft spot, with a 19.5% turnover rate that ranks 253rd. Mercy is unlikely to exploit it: the Titans forced turnovers on just 4.5% of Marquette's possessions, last in Division I.

A rebuilt roster finding its scorers

Richard Pitino's second Xavier team is almost entirely new. Only 13.1% of last season's minutes are back, and the rotation leans on transfers. The most productive has been Westry, the UAB transfer who struggled in exhibitions but is now scoring 15.0 points a game off the bench. Preseason All-Big East pick Jovan Milićević is averaging 11.5 and has hit 3 of 6 from deep, and center Mike Nwoko is shooting 64.3% from the field.

Filip Borovicanin's eligibility fight has a temporary resolution: on Oct. 29 the Ohio Supreme Court kept him and roughly two dozen other players eligible while the case proceeds. He's averaging 5.0 assists as a starter. Freshman Kalek House was cleared for the opener, while fellow freshman Asher Elson (foot) was not expected back until around the third game as of Oct. 29; there has been no update on whether he plays tonight.

The calendar matters a little too. Xavier plays Mississippi State at the Greenbrier on Nov. 13, and a lopsided game here would let Pitino empty the bench early.

Where the number sits

Where the number sits Xavier opened at -32.0 in our feed and sits at -34.5, with ten books quoting. Its two results show how tricky a big number is: the Musketeers covered a 26.5-point spread against Mount St. Mary's, then won by 23 as 23.5-point favorites over Eastern Michigan.

The total has climbed from 157 to 158.5, an odd move given that every game involving these teams has gone under. Xavier has played at a pace of 74 possessions per 40 minutes (87th), so possessions should be plentiful, but its defense has suppressed scoring and Mercy has barely produced any. One drag on a late margin: Xavier shoots 60.8% from the free-throw line, 321st nationally.

What to watch: - Whether Spratt finds the stroke that made him a preseason all-league pick. - Mercy's turnover count before the first media timeout. - How long Xavier's starters stay on the floor after halftime.