Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers prediction: Wisconsin lays 24.5 again after Denver nearly erased a 17-point lead
Four days after a shaky opener, a rebuilt Badgers team faces an even more rebuilt Delaware, and the market has barely moved off the same huge number.
| Spread | Wisconsin -25.75 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 156 |
- Wisconsin should control a slower game; the margin hinges on whether its cold opener shooting was noise or a warning.
- Watch Wisconsin's shooters against a Delaware defense that let opponents hit 34.8% from three last season, 258th nationally.
- Wisconsin is -24.5 with a 153 total; the Badgers closed -25.25 against Denver and won by only seven.
Denver set the price
Wisconsin's season opened Monday with a reminder that big spreads demand a full 40 minutes. The Badgers closed as 25.25-point favorites against Denver, led 44-30 at halftime and still won only 75-68. Foul trouble scrambled Greg Gard's rotation, and a 17-point second-half lead nearly disappeared against a team rated 240th in adjusted net efficiency.
The market shrugged. Wisconsin sits at -24.5 against Delaware, the same number our feed first recorded Thursday. This is the first meeting between the programs, and the price says the books still trust last season's Badgers more than Monday's version.
Two rebuilds, different foundations
Both rosters were remade, but Wisconsin kept far more. The Badgers return 44.5% of last season's minutes after Nick Boyd graduated and John Blackwell left for Duke, with eight newcomers arriving. Last season Wisconsin's adjusted offense (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) scored 126.2, 10th nationally. Big Ten media still picked this group 11th of 18.
Delaware returns just 25.8% of its minutes, so last season's 10-21 record is a weak guide. Martin Ingelsby rebuilt around transfers: Chuck Bailey III from Nevada, DeShawn Harris-Smith from Georgetown and Kachi Nzeh from Little Rock. Their 105-44 opener came against an opponent with no Division I rating, so it says little beyond who plays. Bailey scored 22 on 9-of-11 shooting, and Harris-Smith handed out 11 assists.
Where Wisconsin's shots went
Last season Wisconsin lived behind the arc: 52.1% of its field goal attempts were threes, seventh-most in the country. Against Denver the shots didn't fall. The Badgers made 23.1% from three and an alarming 38.9% at the line, 358th of 360 after one game.
The bright spots came from newcomers and returners on the wing. Eian Elmer, who shot 42.9% from three at Miami (OH) last season, led with 18 points. Braeden Carrington added 15 and hit 3 of 7 from deep. Nolan Winter, the preseason All-Big Ten second-team forward, grabbed 14 rebounds but shot 30% from the field.
Delaware's defense gave up 34.8% from three last season, 258th nationally. If Wisconsin's shooting rebounds even to its usual level, the margin grows fast. If the Badgers keep sending opponents to the line, as Denver's 40.4% free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) showed, the underdog gets free points.
Who is available in Madison
Carrington is playing under a judge's injunction issued Oct. 20 that keeps him eligible for 2026-27; the NCAA is expected to appeal. He started the opener at shooting guard in place of Jack Janicki.
Austin Rapp was still working back to full strength as of Nov. 3, yet he played 30 minutes off the bench Monday. Reports on whether he or Victory Onuetu starts up front conflict, so the frontcourt lineup is unsettled. Will Garlock was described as likely still out with an injury in a Nov. 5 preview. Freshman guard Josh Manchester is out for the season after shoulder surgery. No availability news has surfaced for Delaware.
A slow underdog and the total
The total sits at 153, up a tick from 152.5. Wisconsin's opener closed at 162 and stayed under.
Delaware played at 63.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 350th in the country, though nearly everyone from that team is gone. Wisconsin was also deliberate last season at 66.1 possessions, then ran 70 against Denver. A double-digit underdog usually prefers fewer possessions, and if Delaware's new backcourt slows things down, a total built on Wisconsin's scoring has less room to clear.
Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers line movement and odds
| Book | Hens ML | Badgers ML | Hens spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +3000 | -10000 | +25.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +25.5 (-107) | o155.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +2500 | -9000 | +25.5 (-110) | o155.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +3000 | -20000 | +25.5 (-110) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +3500 | -10000 | +25.5 (-105) | o156 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +3500 | -20000 | +24.5 (-102) | o156.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +25.5 (-105) | o155.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +26 (-110) | o155.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Delaware Blue Hens: 73% of bets, 22% of the money; Wisconsin Badgers: 27% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wisconsin Badgers -24.5: 42% of bets, 55% of the money; Delaware Blue Hens +24.5: 58% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 70% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 154.5: 30% of bets, 62% of the money.
Key players
- Eian Elmer (Wisconsin): Led Wisconsin with 18 points on a team-high 28.6% usage in the opener.
- Nolan Winter (Wisconsin): Pulled down 14 rebounds against Denver but shot just 30% from the field after averaging 13.1 points last season.
- Braeden Carrington (Wisconsin): Scored 15 points with 3 of 7 threes in his first start, playing under an Oct. 20 injunction.
- Owen Foxwell (Wisconsin): Ran the offense with 7 assists and 14 points in 34 minutes.
- Chuck Bailey III (Delaware): Scored 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting in 20 minutes in the opener.
- DeShawn Harris-Smith (Delaware): Posted 11 assists and 7 rebounds in his Delaware debut.
- Kachi Nzeh (Delaware): Shot 41.5% from three at Little Rock last season and blocked 3 shots in the opener.
Numbers that matter
| Spread | -24.5 | Unchanged since our feed first saw it, despite Wisconsin failing to cover a 25.25-point line Monday. |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin 3PA rate, last season | 52.1% | Seventh-most in the country; the Badgers' offense lives or dies behind the arc. |
| Wisconsin FT%, opener | 38.9% | Ranked 358th after one game, after Wisconsin shot 78.8% last season. |
| Delaware returning minutes | 25.8% | So little returns that last season's 10-21 team tells you almost nothing about this one. |
| Total | 153.0 | Nine points below Wisconsin's opener close, which went under. |
Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers: quick answers
Who is favored in Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers?
Wisconsin is favored by 25.75 points (Wisconsin -25.75).
What is the over/under for Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers?
The total is 156 points.
When is Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers?
Friday, November 6, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers?
Yes: Delaware Blue Hens opened +24.5 and is now +25.5, and the total moved from 152.5 to 155.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Delaware Blue Hens vs Wisconsin Badgers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Delaware Blue Hens: 73% of bets, 22% of the money; Wisconsin Badgers: 27% of bets, 78% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Wisconsin Badgers -24.5: 42% of bets, 55% of the money; Delaware Blue Hens +24.5: 58% of bets, 45% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 154.5: 70% of bets, 39% of the money; Under 154.5: 30% of bets, 62% of the money.