Dartmouth vs UAlbany prediction: UAlbany's 11 newcomers face a Dartmouth team built to shoot threes

Starting over in Albany

The most important fact about this game is how little of last season either team brings to it. UAlbany returns 19.8% of last season's minutes, and only three players who saw action are back: Zacharie Matulu, Abdoulaye Fall and Miles Rose, plus guard Wilkin Paulino after a redshirt year. Everyone else is among 11 newcomers. The biggest hole is Amir Lindsey, the America East scoring leader at 17.9 points per game, who left for Fordham.

Dartmouth is less stripped but still reshaped. The Big Green return 32.7% of last season's minutes and lost Kareem Thomas, who scored 15.9 points a game and moved on to Seton Hall. Both teams finished 11-something last season and both were picked sixth in their league's preseason poll.

Last season's adjusted efficiency ratings (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) had Dartmouth ahead, with a net mark ranked 265th nationally to UAlbany's 317th. With this much turnover, treat that gap as a loose starting point rather than a verdict.

Dartmouth lives behind the arc

Dartmouth's identity last season was the three. Almost half its shots came from deep, a 3-point attempt rate of 49.1% that ranked 21st in the country, and it made 36.2% of them. UAlbany's defense allowed opponents 35.0% from three last season, 271st nationally, so the shots Dartmouth wants were available.

The question is who takes them now. Thomas and forward Jayden Williams, who fired 179 threes, are gone. Cameron McNamee is the best returning shooter at 38.6% last season, and Landon Williams arrives from Niagara after shooting 37.3%. If those two keep the volume up, Dartmouth's style survives the roster change.

UAlbany's inside game, minus Okeke

UAlbany scored inside last season, hitting 54.7% of its twos (81st nationally) and grabbing 33.8% of its own misses, an offensive rebound rate that ranked 87th. Dartmouth was one of the weakest offensive rebounding teams in the country but cleaned its own glass well, so second chances should be contested.

Much of that interior work came from Okechukwu Okeke, who shot 69.1% and blocked 2.0 shots a game, and he is not on the roster. UAlbany also lost forward Ben Michaels, a Vermont transfer, to a season-ending torn ACL suffered over the summer. Guard Pedro Santos, a UT Martin transfer, was recovering from a fractured foot and nearing the end of his expected recovery as of late September; no newer update has surfaced.

Dartmouth has size to answer, with 6-foot-11 Colby transfer Dan Civello joining sophomores Tyler Garrett and Anton Strelnikov.

The free throw line problem

If this stays close, UAlbany's weakest habit matters. Last season the Great Danes ranked 364th of 365 in free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) and made just 66.1% of their free throws, 354th. Dartmouth's defense rarely sent opponents to the line, ranking 55th in opponent free throw rate. A new backcourt led by Ollie Engen, a second-team All-Canadian at Queen's who is expected to start at point guard, has room to change that profile, but it starts from a low floor.

New coach, short leash

Brett MacConnell opens his first season in charge at Dartmouth. Across the floor, Dwayne Killings is coaching on a one-year extension, and winning early has been framed as a priority. That makes a home game against an Ivy opponent picked to finish in the middle of its league more meaningful than a typical November date.

UAlbany has won the last two meetings, 73-68 at home in December 2023 and 87-73 at Dartmouth in November 2024. The 1 p.m. tip is promoted as a Veterans Day matinee at Broadview Center.