Coppin State vs Virginia Tech prediction: Virginia Tech's rebuilt roster debuts against Coppin State's turnover problem

A new-look Hokies roster debuts

Mike Young opens his season on Tuesday, Nov. 3, with a roster that looks very different from the one that lost 95-89 in overtime to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament in March. Players left for the transfer portal in waves this spring, Christian Gurdak among them, headed to Rutgers. The arrivals are Kuol Atak from Oklahoma, Jaylen Curry from Oklahoma State and Ethan Copeland from Stetson.

Two returners carry health questions. Amani Hansberry hurt his right knee in the regular-season finale, a 76-72 loss at Virginia, and missed the ACC Tournament. Tech announced his return for a senior season on April 6, and there has been no reliable update on his knee since. Tyler Johnson was described in June as back from a lower-body injury that cost him the first 15 games of ACC play.

This is a buy game: Tech is paying Coppin State $50,000 to come to Cassell Coliseum. The last meeting, in November 2023, ended 100-55. With so much roster change, last season's team numbers are only a rough guide, but the gap between the programs was wide.

Coppin State's giveaway habit

Coppin State went 7-24 last season, and ball security was a big reason. Its turnover rate, the share of possessions ending in a giveaway, was 22.3%, which ranked 361st of 365. Tech's offense was the opposite: 15.1%, 65th nationally.

Tech wasn't a turnover-forcing defense, though. It ranked 152nd in forced turnover rate, so the Hokies may not take the ball away often on their own. Many of Coppin's turnovers may come down to its own mistakes.

The three-point divide

This may be where the margin comes from. Last season Tech held opponents to 30.6% from three, 30th in the country, and Coppin State made just 30.5% of its own threes. Effective field goal percentage, which counts a three as 1.5 field goals, tells the same story: Coppin's 46.3% ranked 354th.

The other end looks just as uneven. Opponents made 37.8% of their threes against Coppin, 360th nationally, and Tech shot 35.5% from deep, 93rd. Coppin's defense allowed the second-worst opponent three-point percentage of last season's field.

Where Coppin can claw back

Coppin's best route to keeping this close is getting extra possessions. It drew fouls well last season, with a free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 37.8%, 97th nationally. But Tech's defense kept opponents off the line, ranking 51st in opponent free throw rate, and Coppin made only 67.4% of its free throws.

The defensive glass is a weak spot for Tech. The Hokies' defensive rebound rate of 67.4% ranked 300th last season. Coppin was middle of the pack on the offensive boards, 171st. Offensive rebounds won't close a gap this wide, but they could shape a second-half spread if one is posted.